Wednesday, January 20, 2016

NFL Playoff Preview and Picks- Conference Championships

Well well well.  Here we are at the Conference Championships, and here I am 8-0 in my playoff picks.  Now we have the top two seeds in both conferences playing for a trip to Super Bowl 50 (confession: I hate that they went to the number.  I really wanted it to be Super Bowl L, so you could just draw out the L when you say it.  "Super Bowllllllll").  I guess we should get right to it.


AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, 3:05 PM

This is going to hurt my heart.  As many folks may know, I have always been a big Tom Brady fan.  I started rooting for him when he was at Michigan, since I also decided to be a Michigan fan when I was very little due to the fact that their mascot is the same name as one of my favorite super heroes (Shut up, I was like 5).  I have a Brady Michigan jersey.  I got a Brady Pats jersey the Christmas before they won their first Super Bowl.  So, I support the guy, despite how often he tries to piss off the entire world, and even though he has become possibly the best QB ever which automatically draws the respectful hatred of fans from other cities.  I expect him to win this game on Sunday.  Why would this hurt my heart?

Cause I want Peyton to win.  I do.  Desperately.  There is nothing as satisfying to someone that loves sports than seeing a beloved figure go out on top.  I felt no great passion towards John Elway, but it was awesome seeing him win his 2nd Super Bowl and then retire.  I want that for the guy Elway employs now.  For as fantastic a QB as he has been, and he is easily Top 5 all time, Peyton Manning will be remembered as a guy that only won 1 Super Bowl.  They will ignore that he has a ring when so many others, like Marino, do not, or that the likes of Favre only have one.  They will look at the number of playoff losses he has, and not the fact that he was in the playoffs practically every year of his career.  Going to three Super Bowls is, in itself, an amazing accomplishment, especially since the Patriots have managed to make it to 6, so AFC appearances have been pretty scarce for teams not from New England.

Denver has a great defense.  Denver has a solid run game.  Tom Brady doesn't play that well in Denver.  It is possible for them to win, for sure.  But I just see the Patriots pulling it out because, well, they are the Patriots.  Maybe it is a fitting end that Peyton Manning's last game is a loss to Tom Brady.  As great as Peyton has been, Tom has always found the way to win more.  He and the Patriots will win again Sunday, 27-24.


NFC Championship Game

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, 6:40 PM

This game is the one I wanted to see happen the most.  The entire season, the Panthers and Cardinals have been the two best teams in the NFC.  It hasn't really been close either.  Sure, the Seahawks or Vikings had a stretch here and there where they played great, but its been Arizona and Carolina all year.  It is going to come down the Carolina defense and the Arizona offense.  I think Cam Newton is going to be able to score at least 21 on the Arizona defense.  He is the MVP, after all.  The real question is whether or not Carson Palmer, David Johnson, and all those WRs can score on Carolina.  The Arizona WRs are better than the Panthers secondary, but the front seven of the Panthers D is superb.  The Cardinals will have to spread the ball out to take advantage of mismatches in talent that they have.

The past two weeks, Arizona just hasn't looked right.  Maybe it is Palmer's dislocated finger.  Maybe it is just that they played two good teams in Seattle and Green Bay.  Call me crazy, but I don't think they can beat the Panthers right now.  Yes, I know that going with the #1 seed is boring, and that we want to see Larry Fitzgerald in the Super Bowl again.  Nevertheless, I think this is Cam Newton's season, and his chance to show why he is clearly this year's MVP.  Give me the Panthers at home, 23-18.


Can we make it to 10-0 in playoff picks?  Who will be in the Super Bowl?  Enjoy finding out Sunday.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

NFL Playoff Preview and Picks- Divisional Round

Well, I went 4-0 on my picks last week, which is unfortunate because my Skins are out now.  Still proud of them for the season they had.  Kirk Cousins should expect a contract around $17 million a year, so the same money as Alex Smith or Jay Cutler.  I have a few friends that are Vikings fans too.  I am happy that they have other sports to concentrate on after that loss.  Then the Bengals and Texans lost, one my self-destruction and one by not showing up at all. So, 4-0, and looking for that to continue into the Divisional Round.  Let's just call this Episode V: The Home Teams Strike Back.

Saturday

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots, 4:35 pm

The Chiefs destroyed the Texans last week.  Just clobbered them.  They look like they could actually make a deep run in the playoffs based on that game.  However, do you ever bet against the Patriots?  That's a good way to lose money. Add in that Jeremy Maclin may not suit up for KC, and the Pats are getting Edelman back, it could be a very long day for Chiefs fans.  Their defense can make all the plays, though, that will keep them in the game.  We still don't know if Chandler Jones is going to be playing on Sunday either following a bizarre possible OD incident this week.  New England is a 5-point favorite right now, and that seems like a pretty good bet.  Patriots find a way to win, 24-19.


Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals, 8:15 pm

Well, it was nice of the real Aaron Rodgers to finally show up, huh?  It was also a bad time for the Redskins defense to remember that they weren't that good.  The Packers looked like their old selves as they eliminated my Skins.  But will it continue this week?  After all, it was only three and a half weeks ago that the Pack when to Arizona and got destroyed 38-8.  I think that the Cardinals are a better team top to bottom, even though playing without Tyrann Matthieu is hurting them.  Green Bay will play better than it did last time, but I still have the Cardinals winning in a shoot out, 34-28.


Sunday

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers, 1:05 pm

The Seahawks are the luckiest damn team I have ever seen.  They really had no right winning that game, but a collapse in coverage on a broken play and a shanked kick means they get to go to Carolina and play against the MVP.  This is another rematch, as the Panthers went to Seattle in Week 5 and beat the Seahawks 27-23.  I think this is Cam Newton's big coming out year, and it would be a waste to see it end so quickly in the playoffs.  Plus, Cardinals/Panthers would be a very fun game to watch.  I do not expect this one to be a shootout, since both defenses are so good.  So, give me the Panthers to win 17-13.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos, 4:40 pm

I am working with the assumption that Big Ben's injury will take some of the zip off his throws, and that Antonio Brown will miss this game after Vontez Burfect tried to decapitate him with his shoulder last week.  I also think the return of Peyton Manning will help a lot in the Denver running game.  He is so good at changing the calls at the line that the Steelers defense will have to respect the pass, and so Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson could have a great day.  Lets not forget that this Pittsburgh team probably would have lost last week if it wasn't for the Bengals meltdown.  I'll take Denver, Peyton, that defense, the altitude, and a home team sweep, 27-20.


There are my picks.  Maybe I will be 8-0 this time next week, or I could be back to .500.  Either way, enjoy the games.

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

NFL Playoff Preview and Picks- Wildcard Weekend

So, the NFL Playoffs are here.  That is always a bit bittersweet for me, since it means I will no longer get to watch fellow Syracuse grad Scott Hanson and NFL Redzone each week.  It is the greatest invention in modern sports TV history.  Playoffs also mean no more fantasy football for me, but I won my league again, so I am ok with that.  Finally, the playoffs usually mean that my team is already at home looking towards the draft.  But not this year!  Yes, somehow, the Washington Redskins won the putrid NFC East with a 9-7 record, and will be hosting a game this weekend.  Kirk Cousins is a legit starting QB, Jay Gruden seems to be a good coach, and our idiot owner didn't get in the way.  So, for at least a few more days, Skins fans get to scream "You Like That!?" at people.  It is a beautiful thing.

Of course, the Skins aren't the only team in the playoff.  The best of the best square off starting this weekend in the Wild Card round.  There are some tough matchups for the home teams.  It wouldn't surprise me if all the Wild Card teams won.  So, looking at all of the games individually, what are my picks?  Let's find out together!

Saturday:

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans, 4:20 pm

I'm not entirely sure how the Texans did it, but even without a QB and a healthy #1 RB, they made it into the playoffs.  Sure, their division was garbage, but all you have to do to make it to the dance is beat enough of the teams on your schedule, and they did.  That being said, I think that their ride stops here.  The Chiefs are the hottest team in football, having won 10 straight after starting out 1-5.  Are they built to wow you with an explosive offense?  No, but they have found a way to average 25 points per game, and Alex Smith has played extremely well.  Were they expected to be a superb defense?  No, but they finished the regular season ranked #3 in scoring defense, allowing only 18 points a game.  I just think that the Chiefs are on too much of a role for the Texans to keep up.  Give me the Chiefs 20-13.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15 pm

This comes down to who is at QB for the Bengals.  If it is Andy Dalton, I give the Bengals a much better chance at winning.  He was playing at an MVP level before he injured his thumb trying to tackle a player.  If it is AJ McCarron, who has looked average during his chance to start, then I am picking the Steelers all the way.  The Steelers biggest enemy is themselves.  They have all the talent in the world, a Superbowl winning QB and coach, and experience in the playoffs.  If they are able to play their game and avoid stupid penalties and turnovers, they will be very tough to beat.  Dalton just had his cast removed, but it sounds like the Bengals will start McCarron.  I'll take Pittsburgh big, 31-17.


Sunday:

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings, 1:05 pm

I respect everything the Vikings have done.  They took the division from the Packers.  Adrian Peterson seems to be able to run on everyone.  Their defense can play great ball when asked to.  Bridgewater manages the game well, and can even make big plays when asked.  They are a great team.  That being said, Seattle is going to win.  There is a reason I wanted no part of the Seahawks when the Skins clinched the division.  When the Seahawks are on, as they have been for weeks (that little blip vs the Rams notwithstanding) they can beat everyone.  Hell, just 5 and a half weeks ago, they went to Minnesota and destroyed the Vikings 38-7.  I don't think it will be that lopsided again, but I do think that the Seahawks will move on to face Carolina, 24-16.


Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins, 4:40 pm

How concerned is the national media about this game?  Well, some are wondering, out loud, on TV, whether or not they'd rather have Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins right now.  Seriously, that is happening.  I can't say that it is all Rodgers' fault.  Losing Jordy Nelson threw off the entire season for the Packers.  They just haven't looked right.  They are 4-6 in their last 10, and that includes the Hail Mary against the Lions.  Meanwhile, the Redskins won 3 straight coming into the postseason.  Kirk and the offense are clicking.  The defense, while letting teams creep back into games, comes up with big plays at the right time.  But they Skins also have yet to beat a team with a winning record, so what kind of competition are they really?

Some folks here in DC are super-optimistic.  While I think the matchup for the Skins is a great one, it just takes a lot for me to pick them to win.  I've watched this team my whole life, even when I was actively rooting for other players on other teams because I liked them in college (hi, Donovan McNabb).  I am used to the Skins getting my hopes up and then laying an egg.  Yet I have been pleasantly surprised this year.  I sat in one of my favorite bars in August, looking at the Skins schedule, and insisting that they would only win 6 games.  They won 9 and the division.  So, maybe it is the past disappointments that keep me from being confident, or maybe pessimism is a defense mechanism that allows me to be even happier if the Skins do somehow pull it out, like they have so far. Either way, I think I have to pick Aaron Rodgers' experience over this feel-good story and a franchise that is (hopefully) on the rise.  I hope I am wrong, though.  Packers take it 21-20.


There are my picks.  That would set up Seattle at Carolina, Green Bay at Arizona, Pittsburgh at Denver, and KC at New England.  Not a bad slate of games for the Divisional round.  Enjoy the games.

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

My 2016 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, If I Had One

Happy New Year!  Lots of sports going on right now, but my first focus is on tomorrow's Baseball Hall of Fame announcement.  In the past, the BBWAA has been extremely stupid in their voting.  There are some years where they do not induct anyone at all into the Hall of Fame.  Thankfully, this year seems to one where we are guaranteed at least one Hall of Famer.  Ken Griffey Jr has a chance to break Tom Seaver's record of the highest vote percentage ever, and deservedly so.  The question will be who joins him.  If I had my way, here are the 8 candidates I'd vote for:

1. Ken Griffey Jr
          - Obvious pick.  He may be the best player of the 1990s, and took the game by storm.

2. Jeff Bagwell
          - The other half of the Killer B's with Hall of Famer Craig Biggio.  The only reason he isn't in the HOF already is the unsubstantiated claim that he may have used PEDs.  Unlike with Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, or McGwire, there is absolutely no proof to support these claims at all.  Bagwell deserves to be in.

3. Mike Piazza
          - One of the greatest offensive catchers of all time, he has also suffered the same fate of Jeff Bagwell.  Again, no proof.  Piazza should be in.

4. Tim Raines
          - The second best leadoff hitter of his generation, if not all time, who is overlooked because Ricky Henderson  On-base percentage numbers that rival those of Tony Gwynn.  I am unsure as to why Raines has been overlooked for so long.  I think this could be the year he finally gets in.

5. Edgar Martinez
          - One of the greatest hitters I have ever seen, Edgar Martinez is every bit a Hall of Famer as anyone else on this list.  Career .312 hitter, 7-time All Star, and the backbone of those 1990s Mariners teams with Griffey, he is perhaps the most beloved figure in Seattle baseball history.  The hang up here is that he was primarily a DH.  While that is an excellent point, we should also look at one of the one-dimensional defensive players already enshrined in the Hall.  Ozzie Smith, the Wizard of Oz, is a career .266 hitter.  His .666 career OPS is far less than  Martinez's .933 OPS. He is a defense-first player, but is in the Hall of Fame.  Why keep out Martinez for being a mainly-offensive minded player?

6. Mike Mussina
          - He played his entire career in the AL East at the time of both the Yankees dynasty and the Red Sox resurgence.  He was the ace for the O's and the Yankees.  He could have stayed on for two or three more seasons after his retirement, and would have almost certainly reached 300 wins.  Instead, he retired, and his candidacy has suffered due to it.  He is also the victim of  pitching in the same era of so many great pitchers.  Still, his case is very strong.

7. Trevor Hoffman
          - Trevor Hoffman is the second best closer of all time.  At the time of his retirement, he was the greatest closer of all time.  Mariano Rivera passed him after Hoffman retired.  In modern baseball, the closer is a legitimate and important role.  If we are willing to put in Rivera, who is almost certainly going to be in the Hall of Fame, then we must put in Trevor Hoffman.

8. Curt Schilling
          - I think that Curt Schilling is a loudmouth, a blowhard, an idiot, and a gasbag.  However, I also think he was a fantastic pitcher.  While putting up borderline-HOF regular season numbers, his post season stats put him over the top.  He went 11-2 with a 2.33 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 19 starts and 133.3 career playoff innings.  Schilling won three World Series, was the MVP of the 1993 NLCS, and the co-MVP of the World Series with Randy Johnson in 2001.


There are other candidates that are close, such as Gary Sheffield, Larry Walker, Billy Wagner, and Jeff Kent.  There are also the PED-linked (with proof) players.  Eventually, they should be in the Hall of Fame.  They just should.  Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were probably Hall of Fame-worthy before their late-career explosions.  That is what is so depressing about it.  So, yes, they should be in the Hall at some point.  However, until the HOF and the BBWAA decides how to deal with their inclusion (such as a mention on the plaque, or a special place just for them) I'd say keep them out.

So, there you are.  We will see if the BBWAA actually elects anyone other than Griffey, though I think that Piazza has a great chance.  I would love to see Bagwell and Raines in as well, just to make some more room on the ballot with other deserving players coming in the next few years.