AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Miami Dolphins
4. New York Jets
The Patriots are the class of the division, as they have been every year of this Millenium. However, the Buffalo Bills are quietly catching up with them. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have a rookie QB and no receivers, and the Jets have two QBs and an angry receiver. We'll leave them at the bottom. (Actual sentence said by one of my best friends, who is a Jets fan: I wish the Jets would be contracted so that I didn't have to root for them anymore." I think a lot of people in NY feel that way.)
Star to Watch: Mario Williams. Can he earn the big contract with the Bills? Can he stay healthy?
Rookie to Watch: Chandler Jones, DE/OLB, Patriots. He will help their pass rush a ton. And no, I am not picking him just because he went to my alma mater, Syracuse. He is that good.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Cincinnati Benglas
4. Cleveland Browns
Poor Cleveland. They just don't stand a chance. I like the Ravens in this division because they still have the best offensive player in Ray Rice, and the best defensive leader in Ray Lewis. Couple that with the Steelers' transition to a new offensive scheme and O-Line issues in a division packed with good defenses, and Baltimore gets the nod. Cincinnati could surprise us all and win the division, but I am not ready to pick them yet. Need to see a 2nd year of success with Andy Dalton and AJ Green at the helm.
Star to Watch: Ed Reed and Ray Lewis. Is this their last season? How long will Reed's beard get? How many amazing speeches will Lewis give?
Rookie to Watch: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals. The former Rutgers star can catch anything, and should see a lot of single coverage with AJ Green occupying the double teams.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
This seems to be a cake walk for the Texans. The rest of the division is in rebuilding mode or complete wreck mode (thanks Jags). If they stay healthy, the Texans will clinch the division by Week 12. Jake Locker is taking over the team in Nashville, but he has an extremely difficult out of division schedule for a first year starter, featuring the AFC EAST and the NFC North. They could start out 0-4 after facing the Patriots, Chargers, Lions and Texans. Andrew Luck will do just fine, and will make sure the Colts win at least 3 games. The Jaguars will probably be the worst team in football, so let the Matt Barkley countdown begin!
Star to Watch: Dwight Freeney. The Colts new 3-4 scheme moves the All-Pro defensive end to outside linebacker. Will he be asked to cover and not just rush the QB? Will it hurt his game?
Rookie to Watch: Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars. I have never liked taking Big XII wideouts because they don't become superstars (Michael Crabtree isn't that good, Dez Bryant has character/injury issues, for example). Blackmon already has two DUI arrests, and now has no real QB to throw to him.
AFC WEST
1. Denver Broncos
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Oakland Raiders
This division race is based entirely on the performance of Peyton Manning. I think he will be great. Maybe not 5 time MVP great, but certainly Top 5 or 10 QB great, which is enough to win this division. He has good receivers, a solid running game, and a talented defense to back him up. San Diego needs to show it can shrug off the early season struggles they have had under Norv Turner. KC and Oakland enter with a ton of questions at almost every position.
Star to Watch: Peyton Manning. The biggest star in the NFL is back, but is he the same?
Rookie to Watch: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, Chargers. I actually have a beer bet going with Baltimore blogger I Hate JJ Redick on who will have a better season, Ingram (from his alma mater of South Carolina) or Chandler Jones (from my alma mater, Syracuse). They both should do well, but will Ingram be able to get to Peyton Manning before he gets rid of the ball?
My AFC Playoff Picks (ranked 1-6, 1 being the best record, 5 and 6 being the Wild Cards):
1. Houston Texans
2. New England Patriots
3. Denver Broncos
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Buffalo Bills
Just missed: Chargers, Bengals, Titans
My Super Bowl picks are in my next post.
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