So it finally happened. Carmelo Anthony was traded to the New York Knicks for a bunch of pieces that won't help the Nuggets at all. So congrats to him and the Knicks fans (and to his wife LaLa, especially) for getting what you wanted. Now, here is why the Knicks made a mistake- They can't afford that 3rd superstar. Not happening. Not without a major discount from Chris Paul, Deron Williams or Dwight Howard. Don't believe me? ESPN Columnist Chad Ford wrote a great article about it. I present it to you now:
Can Knicks add a third star in 2012?
The New York Knicks gutted their roster on Monday evening to acquire Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets. ESPN.com is reporting that, according to sources, the Knicks will send Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, the Knicks' first-round draft pick in 2014 or later, the Warriors' 2012 second-round pick, the Warriors' 2013 second-round pick and $3 million in cash to Denver for Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter and Renaldo Balkman. The Knicks will also send Anthony Randolph and Eddy Curry to the Timberwolves in exchange for Corey Brewer as part of the deal.
Knicks fans are understandably excited. New York has been desperate for a star player for years and now, after being rejected by LeBron James this summer, it has two legit All-Stars in Anthony and Amare Stoudemire.
But will the duo be enough to make the Knicks a contender in the East?
One Eastern Conference GM is skeptical. "They have two very good scorers. Billups will help them as well. But after those three, the Knicks are very, very thin, especially up front," he said. "They won't match up well with the Celtics, Magic, Bulls or Hawks. The Heat don't have much of a frontcourt either, but their big three is better than the Knicks'.
"I'm not sure this move puts [New York] much higher than a fifth or sixth seed in the East this season or the next. After next season, I don't think the Knicks have enough cap room or assets to add another major player. I think they're stuck."
Given the Knicks' woes over the past few seasons, a playoff appearance -- any playoff appearance -- will be a cause for celebration. But after the excitement wears off, the bigger question is, can the Knicks add another piece to make them serious title contenders?
The common theory has the Knicks making a play for Chris Paul, Deron Williams or even Dwight Howard in the summer of 2012. It's a nice dream. And if you believe the rumors, it sounds like Paul and Williams would both like to join Melo and Stoudemire in Gotham.
But there's one problem: Under every scenario I could come up with, the Knicks are unlikely to have the money to make a competitive offer to a major free agent next summer or possess the assets to trade for him beforehand.
First, we have to assume that, until we hear otherwise, Anthony will sign a max extension with New York. (If Knicks general manger Donnie Walsh can talk him into taking considerably less, then this picture begins to change.)
The Knicks are expected to have four players -- Anthony (at a little more than $20 million), Stoudemire (at a little less than $20 million), Balkman ($1.7 million) and Toney Douglas ($2 million) -- under contract in the 2012 offseason, adding up to about $44 million in payroll. And that does not include Landry Fields, who will be a restricted free agent that summer, or the Knicks' 2011 first-round draft pick. If the Knicks keep and commit to both, the payroll will be several million higher. If not, the Knicks will also have to account for another eight minimum cap holds (assuming that the new salary cap rules require cap holds, which is likely) to reach the required 12-man roster. That would raise their projected cap another $2.5 million, putting them around $46.5 million.
Assuming the salary cap in 2012 is the same that it is this season ($58 million), the Knicks would be looking at $11.5 million in cap space in 2012. However, no one thinks the cap will stay the same. With the owners asking for major concessions from the players in the new collective bargaining session, the cap will most likely be considerably lower.
Even if the NBA lowers the maximum salary that players like Paul, Williams or Howard can make in 2012 or if it rolls back salaries on existing contracts, it's highly unlikely the Knicks will have the cap space to pay them anything close to the max. Virtually any lowering of salaries is likely to be proportional to the drop in the cap. So, at best, the Knicks will have $11.5 million in cap space. At worst, it could be considerably less.
That's a pretty big obstacle, but not an impossible one to overcome. There are other ways of acquiring elite talent.
The Knicks could also try to do what they did with Anthony and make a trade at next season's trade deadline for one of the elite free agents. But the problem with that idea is that they have even less to work with than they did this season. New York won't have a first-round pick they can offer until, at best, 2016 (league rules prohibit teams from trading picks in consecutive years). So what could the Knicks offer a team like the Hornets, Jazz or Magic?
Billups' expiring contract would be a possible lure. So would be Fields', if he continues to develop. But after that, the Knicks' cupboard is pretty bare now that they've used their best assets to acquire Anthony. Some have suggested that the Knicks could start stockpiling draft picks by essentially buying them from teams who need to save money. But typically those picks are in the late first round and aren't especially attractive to other teams.
So while fans may be celebrating the arrival of another star to the Big Apple, luring one more and building a contender will be much tougher. In the short term, the team has achieved respectability, added two All-Star talents and even created some sizzle. But in the long term, the team still lacks the critical assets to be a true title contender.
If Knicks fans are happy with 45-to-50 wins per season and a likely first-round exit from the playoffs, then this was a winning move. But for all the Knicks fans who say that nothing but a title contender will make them happy, this deal may have actually put their team further from their goal than they think.
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