Thursday, November 8, 2018
Predictions on the New Teams for MLB's Top 10 Free Agents
The Hot Stove has been turned on, and the cast iron skillet that is the MLB free agency rumor mill is starting to smoke. All the talk has focused on the two young superstars, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, but there are some other amazing players out there in need of a new (or old) home. To that end, here are my predictions for where baseball's top 10 free agents will end up.
1. Bryce Harper- Los Angeles Dodgers
I see this race coming down to the Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals. I think Philly will get their man (see #2 on this list), and the Yankees will concentrate on pitching. I don't think the Cardinals or Giants will offer the kind of money Scott Boras is looking for. So, we then look at the Cubs, Dodgers, and Nats. The Cubs have great fans, history, a great young team, and Bryce's buddy Kris Bryant. That is one hell of a selling point. However, if Harper was to take a decade-plus long deal, that means that a lot of money that could be used to keep Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez would suddenly be gone. The Cubs have the resources to go over the luxury tax and be fine, but are they willing to? The Nats are the hometown team, and I believe are willing to pay him the money, but I also think they see the other holes in the roster, and future extensions for Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner. Plus, Juan Soto and Victor Robles have been groomed as "Bryce Insurance". They can keep the team competitive or better, though maybe with less star power. The Dodgers, on the other hand, love their star power. It is LA, after all. And they have money and aren't afraid to spend it. They already have Bellinger, Puig, Hernandez, Peterson, and Kemp? So what?! Harper is the kind of star those LA fans come out for. I, for one, will be heartbroken to see him in any other uniform than the Nats, but I am mentally preparing myself for the image of him, courtside at a Laker game on an off day, chatting with LeBron.
2. Manny Machado- Philadelphia Phillies
Now that Harper is gone, there is the other wunderkind. The Phillies have wanted Machado so badly it could almost be called tampering. They have a need at both 3B and SS, and Machado can play both. They have boatloads of money they can throw at Machado as well. And finally, Phillies president Andy McPhail drafted Machado, and has a great relationship with him. I think that this may be the most slam-dunk move of the offseason.
3. Patrick Corbin- New York Yankees
The Yankees need pitching. The Yankees have money. Patrick Corbin is the best pitcher on the market. The Bronx Bombers have solid young pieces in position that make signing Harper or Machado unnecessary. They take all of that capital, and move it on to Patrick Corbin. I could also see them trading one or two of their top young prospects, along with some lower down in the minors, for the likes of Corey Kluber. The Red Sox just won it all. The fans will demand the Yankees do whatever they can to make sure that doesn't happen in 2019.
4. Dallas Keuchel- Washington Nationals
As I mentioned in a previous post, the Nats could use the money they have after Bryce goes elsewhere to fill some major holes on their team, including a quality lefty for the rotation. They will also need a player with a bit of a name to help ease the pain of the game's biggest star playing elsewhere. Keuchel may not be Max Scherzer, but he is an upgrade over Gio Gonzalez, and could be the best #3 pitcher in baseball. Penciling him in every 5th game behind Max and Stephen Strasburg will go a long way to solving one of the big issues from the 2018 season.
5. Craig Kimbrel- Atlanta Braves
The Vulture goes home. The Braves shocked the world by winning the NL East, and have a solid young core of players in place to stay competitive for years. Their only big issue? Their bullpen. They had major issues putting away teams last year. They splurge, and bring back one of the game's premier closer in Kimbrel, who will help anchor a re-vamped bullpen, and those 20,000 or so Braves fans that actually exist will start thinking about another NL East dynasty.
6. Josh Donaldson- St. Louis Cardinals
This is another signing that has been rumored for a while, all the way back to trade talk last year. The Cardinals need a star player with a big name that can produce for them at the hot corner, but doesn't demand the same amount of money as Harper or Machado. Enter Donaldson, a former AL MVP who is still an MVP-caliber player when healthy. He provides more lineup depth, and protection for Jose Martinez and Marcell Ozuna. It is a good fit.
7. Nathan Eovaldi- Boston Red Sox
You come onto a great team, and turn it into an all-time great one? You win a World Series? That is the kind of performance that makes a mid-season trade acquisition worth keeping. The Red Sox could repeat if they keep most of their stellar team intact. I think they offer Eovaldi an extra year to stay in the AL East and compete for titles.
8. Michael Brantley- Atlanta Braves
Those pesky Braves make another signing, and bring in an experienced OF bat to replace the older Nick Markakis. Brantley is a career .295 hitter, who can help solidify the power of that young Braves lineup with Freeman, Acuna, and Albies.
9. AJ Pollock- Chicago White Sox
Call this more of a panic move than anything else. The White Sox are ridiculously young, but they will need to show they are committed to winning in order to draw the quality free agents other teams can. In order to do that, they take a chance on talented-yet-oft-injured AJ Pollock to man an outfield spot. When healthy, he is clearly leaps and bounds better than the projected White Sox outfielders. If he can stay off the DL, it could be a massive steal.
10. JA Happ- Los Angeles Angels
Has there been a more disappointing team over the past decade than the Angels? Let me put it this way- Everyone rags on Bryce Harper and the Nats for not winning a playoff series. Guess what? Mike Trout's Angels have never even won a playoff game! With Shohei Ohtani only hitting next year as he recovers from Tommy Johns, the Angels need a capable arm in their rotation. Happ was great in Toronto and dominant in New York. He can spend the final few years of his career in sunny So-Cal, as the Angels try to make one more push before Mike Trout takes his talents elsewhere.
Tuesday, November 6, 2018
What if Bryce Leaves?: How the Nats Can Spend $40 Million
At some point, every Nationals fan has come face to face with a very real possibility: Bryce Harper, the face of the franchise and arguably the most recognizable player in baseball, may be wearing a different uniform next season. He has even brought that "Who will he choose" theme into his new MLB: The Show cover. It is possible a team like the Giants or Dodgers will break the bank and sign him for the next decade. Maybe Bryce decides he wants to play with his buddy Kris Bryant in Chicago. The point is, the Nats could be without their star next year, and with an extra $40 million or so in cash to spend. How might the Nats use that money to make the team better?
First, we have to address the outfield, where the Nats don't have to spend anything. The only reason that the Nationals are even considering letting Bryce Harper walk is that they have Juan Soto and Victor Robles ready to go. Soto had arguably the greatest season any teenager has ever had, including Harper. Robles has had flashes of brilliance in his limited playing time. Slot them in every day with Adam Eaton, with a Gold Glove-level 4th outfielder in Michael A. Taylor, and you still have one of the better young outfields in baseball. Yes, I believe that Soto/Robles/Harper would be even better, but that is not the scenario we are dealing with.
Next, there is a certain other soon-to-be free agent that helps drive the Nats. They could use a good chunk of that money on extending Anthony Rendon. I would be thrilled if they do that, because he has been the Nationals' most consistent player for years. However, I think good old Scott Boras will try to get his client to test free agency after the 2019 season. We will assume the extension doesn't happen before the season.
So, what to do with all that money? The three biggest holes on the roster, now that the Nationals signed Trevor Rosenthal to help boost the bullpen, are starting pitcher, catcher, and second base. Gio Gonzalez won't be coming back to DC, nor will Daniel Murphy. Catcher has been a big issue since Wilson Ramos left, and none of the Nats prospects are ready to take over. If my last name were suddenly Lerner or Rizzo, here is how I would spend the cash (salaries based on MLB Trade Rumors' projections):
- Sign LHP Dallas Keuchel to a 4-year, $82 million deal ($20.5 million per year). Scherzer, Strasburg, Keuchel. That is one hell of a big three in any rotation. The Nats can not only replace Gio Gonzalez as the staff lefty, they can upgrade. While Keuchel may never regain his Cy Young form, he still is coming off a year with a sub-4 ERA, produces a ton of ground balls, and doesn't give up many home runs. If he does happen to get back to his 2015 ways, it is a steal of a contract. Cheaper option- J.A. Happ, 3-year, $48 million ($16 million per year). Has put up better numbers than Keuchel, but is 36. Wade Miley may be the cheapest option, at about $6 million per year, but is a step below the other two. Either way, the Nats need to add a lefty back into their rotation.
- Bring back Wilson Ramos with a 3-year, $36 million deal ($12 million per year). Talk about a signing that will make fans happy. Everybody in DC loves the Buffalo, and we would be thrilled to have him back with a Curly W on his chest. Ramos has caught 800 innings the past two years, so he can still cut it behind the plate. He knows the staff, he knows the culture. Most importantly, he can hit. The Nationals catchers (Matt Wieters, Spencer Kieboom, and Pedro Severino) combined for a dismal .212 average and an awful .615 OPS in 2018. Ramos, between TB and Philly, hit .306 with an OPS of .845. This is a no-brainer. He may also be able to sub in at 1B when called on. The "cheaper" option? Trade for JT Realmuto. He may be the best every day catcher in the game, but he will come at a massive prospect cost. The Marlins supposedly asked for both Robles and Soto before the season. That is simply impossible if Bryce leaves. If they are willing to take a deal based around prospects like Luis Garcia or Carter Kieboom, then it may be doable.
- Sign DJ LeMahieu to a 2-year, $18 million contract ($9 million per year). I, along with many others, see Carter Kieboom as the National's 2B of the future. However, he has yet to play 2B in his professional career. Since it may take a season or two, why not fill in with a former NL batting champ with Gold Glove defense? LeMahieu is coming off a "down year", where he hit .276 and had a .749 OPS, but is still one of the best defensive second basemen in the game. Plugging him in for 2 years while a prospect learns the position better is ideal. Cheaper option? A 1-year, $10 million shot with Brian Dozier might work, in case he bounces back. Maybe take a flyer on Josh Harrison for less. Or, if Howie Kendrick recovers fast from his achillies tear, plug him in. LeMahieu is the best option until one of the Nats' top prospects is ready, though.
So, Keuchel, Ramos, LeMahieu comes out to $41.5 million worth of salary for next year. Substitute JA Happ for Keuchel, and it becomes $37 million. Throw in a cheap lefty bench bat, and you have a great free agent class. Both of these seem relatively doable, and would be a good use of funds. The Nats may not be as exciting or star studded without Bryce, but they would fill in some gaps that hurt the team this past season. Plus, if you look at the lineup and rotation, it is still pretty impressive:
1. Adam Eaton RF
2. Trea Turner SS
3. Anthony Rendon 3B
4. Juan Soto LF
5. Ryan Zimmerman 1B
6. Victor Robles CF
7. DJ LeMahieu 2B
8. Wilson Ramos C
Rotation- Scherzer (R), Strasburg (R), Keuchel/Happ (L), Roark (R), Ross (R)
That team can still compete for the NL East title and a World Series. It gives the young players in DC a chance to shine outside of Bryce's shadow. If Harper doesn't come back, that is how I'd spend that money.
First, we have to address the outfield, where the Nats don't have to spend anything. The only reason that the Nationals are even considering letting Bryce Harper walk is that they have Juan Soto and Victor Robles ready to go. Soto had arguably the greatest season any teenager has ever had, including Harper. Robles has had flashes of brilliance in his limited playing time. Slot them in every day with Adam Eaton, with a Gold Glove-level 4th outfielder in Michael A. Taylor, and you still have one of the better young outfields in baseball. Yes, I believe that Soto/Robles/Harper would be even better, but that is not the scenario we are dealing with.
Next, there is a certain other soon-to-be free agent that helps drive the Nats. They could use a good chunk of that money on extending Anthony Rendon. I would be thrilled if they do that, because he has been the Nationals' most consistent player for years. However, I think good old Scott Boras will try to get his client to test free agency after the 2019 season. We will assume the extension doesn't happen before the season.
So, what to do with all that money? The three biggest holes on the roster, now that the Nationals signed Trevor Rosenthal to help boost the bullpen, are starting pitcher, catcher, and second base. Gio Gonzalez won't be coming back to DC, nor will Daniel Murphy. Catcher has been a big issue since Wilson Ramos left, and none of the Nats prospects are ready to take over. If my last name were suddenly Lerner or Rizzo, here is how I would spend the cash (salaries based on MLB Trade Rumors' projections):
- Sign LHP Dallas Keuchel to a 4-year, $82 million deal ($20.5 million per year). Scherzer, Strasburg, Keuchel. That is one hell of a big three in any rotation. The Nats can not only replace Gio Gonzalez as the staff lefty, they can upgrade. While Keuchel may never regain his Cy Young form, he still is coming off a year with a sub-4 ERA, produces a ton of ground balls, and doesn't give up many home runs. If he does happen to get back to his 2015 ways, it is a steal of a contract. Cheaper option- J.A. Happ, 3-year, $48 million ($16 million per year). Has put up better numbers than Keuchel, but is 36. Wade Miley may be the cheapest option, at about $6 million per year, but is a step below the other two. Either way, the Nats need to add a lefty back into their rotation.
- Bring back Wilson Ramos with a 3-year, $36 million deal ($12 million per year). Talk about a signing that will make fans happy. Everybody in DC loves the Buffalo, and we would be thrilled to have him back with a Curly W on his chest. Ramos has caught 800 innings the past two years, so he can still cut it behind the plate. He knows the staff, he knows the culture. Most importantly, he can hit. The Nationals catchers (Matt Wieters, Spencer Kieboom, and Pedro Severino) combined for a dismal .212 average and an awful .615 OPS in 2018. Ramos, between TB and Philly, hit .306 with an OPS of .845. This is a no-brainer. He may also be able to sub in at 1B when called on. The "cheaper" option? Trade for JT Realmuto. He may be the best every day catcher in the game, but he will come at a massive prospect cost. The Marlins supposedly asked for both Robles and Soto before the season. That is simply impossible if Bryce leaves. If they are willing to take a deal based around prospects like Luis Garcia or Carter Kieboom, then it may be doable.
- Sign DJ LeMahieu to a 2-year, $18 million contract ($9 million per year). I, along with many others, see Carter Kieboom as the National's 2B of the future. However, he has yet to play 2B in his professional career. Since it may take a season or two, why not fill in with a former NL batting champ with Gold Glove defense? LeMahieu is coming off a "down year", where he hit .276 and had a .749 OPS, but is still one of the best defensive second basemen in the game. Plugging him in for 2 years while a prospect learns the position better is ideal. Cheaper option? A 1-year, $10 million shot with Brian Dozier might work, in case he bounces back. Maybe take a flyer on Josh Harrison for less. Or, if Howie Kendrick recovers fast from his achillies tear, plug him in. LeMahieu is the best option until one of the Nats' top prospects is ready, though.
So, Keuchel, Ramos, LeMahieu comes out to $41.5 million worth of salary for next year. Substitute JA Happ for Keuchel, and it becomes $37 million. Throw in a cheap lefty bench bat, and you have a great free agent class. Both of these seem relatively doable, and would be a good use of funds. The Nats may not be as exciting or star studded without Bryce, but they would fill in some gaps that hurt the team this past season. Plus, if you look at the lineup and rotation, it is still pretty impressive:
1. Adam Eaton RF
2. Trea Turner SS
3. Anthony Rendon 3B
4. Juan Soto LF
5. Ryan Zimmerman 1B
6. Victor Robles CF
7. DJ LeMahieu 2B
8. Wilson Ramos C
Rotation- Scherzer (R), Strasburg (R), Keuchel/Happ (L), Roark (R), Ross (R)
That team can still compete for the NL East title and a World Series. It gives the young players in DC a chance to shine outside of Bryce's shadow. If Harper doesn't come back, that is how I'd spend that money.
Monday, November 5, 2018
And We Are Back. What. A. Summer!
Sometime around 11:00 PM on June 7th, 2018, I found myself outside Capital One Arena in Washington, DC, hugging my girlfriend, on the verge of tears. Happy tears. Very, very happy tears. I had just seen my Washington Capitals win the Stanley Cup, and ran over to join in with the celebration at F and 7th St, NW. Joy embraced the city for weeks after, from the parade, to the endless amounts of drinking, to blasting "We Are The Champions" while swimming in a fountain. Then, sometime around Labor Day, most of us woke up to a frightful sight: The Washington Nationals.
To say that I haven't been writing for a few months because of my beloved Nats is only partially true. As per usual, the real world can get in the way of a hobby. I have been busy living my life and being happy... then going to Nats Park and being sad. I don't quite know what happened to my favorite team. Bryce Harper's early season struggles, the disappearance of Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark as reliable rotation pieces, the complete lack of contribution from the catcher position- it was all awful. In the end, they still finished with a winning record, 82-80, and in 2nd place, but that isn't acceptable for a team with such high hopes. Now, with Haper's tenure in DC possibly at an end, we Nats fans face what could be a long, cold winter (though Juan Soto's gleaming smile may be the light that guides us to spring). Nevertheless, I will try to fight through the gloom to give you more content on here. After all, there are some pretty great things going on:
- SYRACUSE IS GOING TO A BOWL GAME, AND IS RANKED! *ahem* Sorry, did I shout that?
- The Caps are back to defend the Cup, and every fan I meet has a big smile on their face, as if a great weight has been lifted. It is lovely.
- The Wizards are playing again, and may have taken the Skins' mantle of "Most Dysfunctional Team"
- The Skins, for the moment, are in first place in the NFC East. Adrian Peterson looks solid. The defense has looked great in most games. Alex Smith is still getting there, but he has no WRs to speak of. We will check in with them closer to the playoffs.
- NCAA basketball starts tomorrow, NCAA football is in full swing, the NBA and NHL have games every night, and we still have half a NFL season to go! It is the most wonderful time of the year!
And yet, part of me is still waiting to hear that news about our beloved #34. Will Bryce come back to DC? Will a team like the Giants break the bank for him? If so, what could the Nats get with that money (check back to see that column). It is a fun time to follow and write about sports. I am happy to be back doing it. Thanks for reading.
To say that I haven't been writing for a few months because of my beloved Nats is only partially true. As per usual, the real world can get in the way of a hobby. I have been busy living my life and being happy... then going to Nats Park and being sad. I don't quite know what happened to my favorite team. Bryce Harper's early season struggles, the disappearance of Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark as reliable rotation pieces, the complete lack of contribution from the catcher position- it was all awful. In the end, they still finished with a winning record, 82-80, and in 2nd place, but that isn't acceptable for a team with such high hopes. Now, with Haper's tenure in DC possibly at an end, we Nats fans face what could be a long, cold winter (though Juan Soto's gleaming smile may be the light that guides us to spring). Nevertheless, I will try to fight through the gloom to give you more content on here. After all, there are some pretty great things going on:
- SYRACUSE IS GOING TO A BOWL GAME, AND IS RANKED! *ahem* Sorry, did I shout that?
- The Caps are back to defend the Cup, and every fan I meet has a big smile on their face, as if a great weight has been lifted. It is lovely.
- The Wizards are playing again, and may have taken the Skins' mantle of "Most Dysfunctional Team"
- The Skins, for the moment, are in first place in the NFC East. Adrian Peterson looks solid. The defense has looked great in most games. Alex Smith is still getting there, but he has no WRs to speak of. We will check in with them closer to the playoffs.
- NCAA basketball starts tomorrow, NCAA football is in full swing, the NBA and NHL have games every night, and we still have half a NFL season to go! It is the most wonderful time of the year!
And yet, part of me is still waiting to hear that news about our beloved #34. Will Bryce come back to DC? Will a team like the Giants break the bank for him? If so, what could the Nats get with that money (check back to see that column). It is a fun time to follow and write about sports. I am happy to be back doing it. Thanks for reading.
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