The Cold Stove- Why Baseball's Best Free Agents Are Still Unsigned

Normally, right around the holidays, there is a flurry of MLB free agent moves or offseason trades.  It looked like we may have been heading that way after the blockbuster trade that brought Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees, but since then movement has been minimal.  The Angels made some moves, getting Justin Upton and Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani.  The Brewers bolstered their outfield with Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich.  The Mets recently added Todd Frazier after bringing back Jay Bruce.  After that?  Not much.  With the exception of the reliever market, and the continued Marlins fire sale, the Hot Stove has been extraordinarily cold. 

You could field an entire team with the free agents remaining unsigned on the market, and that team could be pretty damn competitive.  And here it is, your All Free Agent team:

1B- Eric Hosmer
2B- Neil Walker
3B- Mike Moustakas
SS- Eduardo Nunez
C- Johnathan Lucroy
LF- Carlos Gomez
CF- Carlos Gonzalez
RF- JD Martinez

Bench- Logan Morrison 1B/2B/LF
Bench- Lucas Duda 1B
Bench- Jon Jay OF
Bench- Carlos Ruiz C
Bench- Mark Reynolds 3B

SP- Yu Darvish
SP- Jake Arrieta
SP- Lance Lynn
SP- Alex Cobb
SP- Jaime Garcia

RP- Tony Watson
RP- Greg Holland
RP- Bud Norris
RP- Francisco Liriano
RP- Oliver Perez
RP- Trevor Rosenthal
RP- Zach Putnam


That is a ridiculous amount of proven major league talent that has yet to be signed, and pitchers and catchers report in a week.  Now, I am not going to go so far as to claim collusion on the part of the MLB owners...  But the agents will!  Scott Boras is none too pleased with how this offseason has gone for many of his clients.  MLBPA chief Tony Clark shared similar sentiments about teams refusing to spend money or be competitive.  They are going as far as to set up a special spring training just for the unsigned players.  What is the reason behind this super-slow market?

As Clark suggested, some teams may just be trying to hit the reset button, being as bad as they can be for a year or two, rebuilding their farm system with prospects, and then competing with mostly home-grown talent.  After all, that worked for the Astros and the Cubs.  However, some of these teams don't have as loyal of a fan-base of those teams, and they may not be able to keep their young talent if the rebuild takes too long, since they will be free agents eventually (this screams Marlins, who have traded away every good young player they have other than JT Realmuto, who wants to be traded).

The next reason might be teams saving up for the huge free agent class next year.  Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Dallas Keuchel, and maybe even Clayton Kershaw will all be available in the offseason, barring trades or extensions.  Teams may be choosing to be thrifty this year so they can afford the massive contracts of these extremely talented players.  The long-time rumor was that a player of Harper or Machado's caliber could sign a deal for around $400 million.  But, if you don't land that player, you will have missed the opportunity to get an All Star like Hosmer, Darvish, or Martinez this year.  Are teams really willing to risk the reality of being competitive now for the outside possibility of being a World Series favorite next year if they can get one of these players?

Finally, the last possibility is that teams may have started looking at the numbers on big contracts a little bit closer than they have in the past.  MLB Network's wonderful Brian Kenny chimed in-



A lot of big contracts there that didn't work out.  Is this, based on that performance, just a market correction?  It isn't good for the players, who wanted that same money and number of years that has been there in recent years.  But it might be good for a team that needs a piece or two now that could put them over the top.  If a team needs a starter for one or two years, like my Washington Nationals, why not sign Jake Arrieta to a "show me" contract with a lucrative team option in the 2nd year?  Bringing him in behind Scherzer, Strasburg, and with Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark, makes that the best rotation in the majors.  If you are the Dodgers and see that your outfield might be the weakest part of your team, why not sign JD Martinez to a short, but lucrative, deal?  It would not only bring a big bat to your lineup, but it would take him away from the division-rival Diamondbacks.

So, if it is a market correction, we may see some contracts that offer higher salaries per year, but only go for 3-5 seasons instead of 8-10.  It would force the players to stay on that high level throughout their shorter contract, while still giving them the money that they wanted, just over the shorter amount of time.  Personally, as a fan who doesn't get involved in that politics between the players and owners, I have no problem with that.  If you tell me that I can have Bryce Harper for his age 26-30 seasons on a 5 year deal worth $200 million, I'd be ecstatic.  Fans want their favorite players to stay on their teams.  They want their teams to remain competitive.

At some point, the levee will break, and these players will all get signed.  Some folks believe that Todd Frazier's 2-year, $17 million contract with the Mets may set the market for the mid-level players.  The Twins have an offer out to Yu Darvish that could set the market for the Twins.  The Red Sox have offered JD Martinez a deal over $100 million.  If these deals go through, then the market should move fast as spring training begins.  Until they are signed, however, we will just have to wait by the Cold Stove.