Where Will Kirk Cousins End Up? Part 3- Minnesota Vikings

The Super Bowl has come and gone, the Redskins traded for Alex Smith, and Kirk Cousins is a free agent.  In Part 3 of this continuing story, we look at possibly the new leader for Cousins' services, the Minnesota Vikings.

The first evidence that the Vikings want Cousins, aside from the reports saying so, is that they currently have no quarterbacks signed for next year.  They aren't going to put the franchise tag on Case Keenum, even though he led the Vikings to the NFC Championship game.  They will be letting Teddy Bridgewater test free agency, because they are still uncertain of how he is recovering from his catastrophic knee injury.  One could imagine them bringing him back for a cheaper deal than Keenum, but probably as a backup.  Finally, the oft-injured Sam Bradford is an unrestricted free agent as well.  Needless to say, they are in desperate need of having at least one signal-caller on the roster.  Cousins could be viewed as an upgrade at the position, so he could be worth the expense for a team that was so close to the Super Bowl.

So, why should Kirk Cousins pick the Vikings?  A bunch of reasons.  As I said, they were one win away from the Super Bowl.  They have a super-talented defense, which was #1 in total defense last season.  They have a solid running game in Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, and Dalvin Cook, who is coming off of his ACL injury.  Their offensive line played great most of the season, allowing Keenum all the time he needed to put up Pro Bowl numbers.  Kyle Rudolph is a Top 10 tight end amd fantastic Red Zone weapon.  Finally, they may have the best wide receiver corp in the NFL.  Stefon Diggs is an exceptional playmaker.  Adam Thieland has turned into one of the best possession receivers in recent memory.  If Laquon Treadwell develops like the front office hopes he does, Cousins would have a plethora of weapons to work with.  Plus, he would get to play all of his home games indoors (and a road game inside in Detroit) every year, which are ideal conditions for a QB.

Another reason why it makes sense to bring in Kirk Cousins is that he is a "mid-western" guy.  Born in Illinois, raised in Holland, MI, and a graduate of Michigan State, Cousins would be closer to home in Minnesota than he would be with almost any other team.  I am sure that would help sell the massive contract Cousins would get to the Vikings fans.

The only hold up to making this happen, other than Cousins' own decision, may be potential salary cap implications.  While the Vikings can afford him (they have over $50 million in cap space), they will have to sign Anthony Barr and Stefon Diggs to contracts following next season.  Having a QB eating up so much cap space won't help matters.  However, if Cousins puts them over the top and they win a Super Bowl, I don't think the fans will complain much.

The Minnesota Vikings would be a great landing spot for Kirk Cousins.  They make sense from almost every aspect.  They are a team that could be just one piece away.  I would not be surprised at all if this is the final landing spot of the hottest free agent on the market.

Landing Spots for Arrieta, Cobb, and Lynn

Darvish is a Cub. Hosmer is a Padre.  JD Martinez finally signed with the Red Sox.  Even Tim Lincecum has returned to the majors after signing with the Rangers.  But, even with Spring Training in full swing, there are three big free agent pitchers left unsigned.  Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn have yet to find teams, and I think I can help them along.  Here are my suggested landing spots for each of those three, and I have even gone to the trouble to not include my Nats, who could very easily sign any of them.

Jake Arrieta- The Philadelphia Phillies
This particular rumor has been gaining a lot of steam recently, and it makes a ton of sense.  The Phillies are a young team on the rise, and they could use the leadership of the former Cy Young winner to vault to contention in the NL East a year or two early.  Arrieta would be able to slot right in atop the Phillies rotation along with Aaron Nola as well, giving some of the younger arms like Nick Pavetta more time to develop.  If Arrieta wants to join a World Series contender for this year, he may have to take less money.  The Phillies, who have a ton of cash to spend, have a solid young base though, and could be major players in the incredible 2018-19 free agent class.

Lance Lynn- The Baltimore Orioles
This is a perfect matchup, much like with the Phillies, because the Orioles don't have many quality pitchers or experienced veterans in their rotation.  Lynn would instantly provide them with a top flight starter.  The real question is what the O's intentions are.  Are they on the verge of being a team that dismantles everything and starts from scratch?  Once they lose Manny Machado, they will be without a young star to build around.  I think, for the sake of the fans, the Orioles will offer Lynn a 1 or 2 year contract that will give them an instant upgrade in the rotation, and try one final time to upset the evil empires in Boston and New York.

Alex Cobb- Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have made significant upgrades to their lineup, adding Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain.  However, they missed out on both Shohei Ohtani and Yu Darvish, and their rotation could still use some help.  Adding Alex Cobb would help the Brew Crew keep up with the Cubs and Cardinals in that division.  Plus, the return of Jimmy Nelson from shoulder surgery would be like trading for another starter to join a solid rotation if Cobb was already there.

Yu Darvish to the Cubs: What Does It Mean?

Well, the rich got richer today, as the Chicago Cubs landed the top free agent pitcher on the market, Yu Darvish.  They signed him to a 6-year, $126 million contract, which could be worth more up to $150 million with escalators, and an opt-out after 2016.  So, the Cubs rotation of Darvish, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks, and Tyler Chatwood is easily one of the most formidable in all of baseball.  The Cubs are likely the early favorite for the NL crown.  But, what does this signing mean for the rest of MLB?

- The contract likely sets the market for Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb.  Darvish was considered the top pitcher on the market, and only got $21 million a year for 6 years.  That will likely be the most a player will get for years, so any higher annual salary will have to be for fewer years.  A team like my Nationals could swoop in and grab Arrieta (who is represented by Scott Boras, the same agent as most of the Nats' stars), for a 3 year deal for around $65 million, minimizing the long term commitment and risk for the franchise while still giving Arrieta a nice pay day.  It is more likely that, while Arrieta will get a deal like that, Lynn and Cobb may be stuck getting deals slightly under $100 million.

- The Brewers, Twins, and Dodgers were all linked to Darvish at some point.  Now that he is off the market, look for those teams to get into the sweepstakes for the remaining FA's in a big way.

- This could be a loss for a team like the Orioles, who have expressed some interest in Lynn on a short term "show me" deal, but with those other teams missing out on Darvish, those scorned franchises may be more willing to offer Lynn and Cobb multi-year deals.

- An interesting note for fellow Nats fans- with this deal, the Cubs now have $144 million in salaries lined up for next season already, and that is before arbitration salaries for the likes of Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Baez, and Addison Russell.  Curiously, that may make it much harder for them to sign Bryce Harper.  The Nationals, meanwhile, only have $88 million in salaries lined up for 2019 before arbitration for Anthony Rendon, Michael A. Taylor, and Tanner Roark.  They will have the money to sign Bryce to a massive deal, and still have some left over to add pieces to their rotation.  This, of course, assumes he would want to stay.



So, Yu has a home, the Cubs are even better, and the Hot Stove might finally heat up, all with Spring Training less than a week away.  Baseball, here we come!

The Cold Stove- Why Baseball's Best Free Agents Are Still Unsigned

Normally, right around the holidays, there is a flurry of MLB free agent moves or offseason trades.  It looked like we may have been heading that way after the blockbuster trade that brought Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees, but since then movement has been minimal.  The Angels made some moves, getting Justin Upton and Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani.  The Brewers bolstered their outfield with Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich.  The Mets recently added Todd Frazier after bringing back Jay Bruce.  After that?  Not much.  With the exception of the reliever market, and the continued Marlins fire sale, the Hot Stove has been extraordinarily cold. 

You could field an entire team with the free agents remaining unsigned on the market, and that team could be pretty damn competitive.  And here it is, your All Free Agent team:

1B- Eric Hosmer
2B- Neil Walker
3B- Mike Moustakas
SS- Eduardo Nunez
C- Johnathan Lucroy
LF- Carlos Gomez
CF- Carlos Gonzalez
RF- JD Martinez

Bench- Logan Morrison 1B/2B/LF
Bench- Lucas Duda 1B
Bench- Jon Jay OF
Bench- Carlos Ruiz C
Bench- Mark Reynolds 3B

SP- Yu Darvish
SP- Jake Arrieta
SP- Lance Lynn
SP- Alex Cobb
SP- Jaime Garcia

RP- Tony Watson
RP- Greg Holland
RP- Bud Norris
RP- Francisco Liriano
RP- Oliver Perez
RP- Trevor Rosenthal
RP- Zach Putnam


That is a ridiculous amount of proven major league talent that has yet to be signed, and pitchers and catchers report in a week.  Now, I am not going to go so far as to claim collusion on the part of the MLB owners...  But the agents will!  Scott Boras is none too pleased with how this offseason has gone for many of his clients.  MLBPA chief Tony Clark shared similar sentiments about teams refusing to spend money or be competitive.  They are going as far as to set up a special spring training just for the unsigned players.  What is the reason behind this super-slow market?

As Clark suggested, some teams may just be trying to hit the reset button, being as bad as they can be for a year or two, rebuilding their farm system with prospects, and then competing with mostly home-grown talent.  After all, that worked for the Astros and the Cubs.  However, some of these teams don't have as loyal of a fan-base of those teams, and they may not be able to keep their young talent if the rebuild takes too long, since they will be free agents eventually (this screams Marlins, who have traded away every good young player they have other than JT Realmuto, who wants to be traded).

The next reason might be teams saving up for the huge free agent class next year.  Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Dallas Keuchel, and maybe even Clayton Kershaw will all be available in the offseason, barring trades or extensions.  Teams may be choosing to be thrifty this year so they can afford the massive contracts of these extremely talented players.  The long-time rumor was that a player of Harper or Machado's caliber could sign a deal for around $400 million.  But, if you don't land that player, you will have missed the opportunity to get an All Star like Hosmer, Darvish, or Martinez this year.  Are teams really willing to risk the reality of being competitive now for the outside possibility of being a World Series favorite next year if they can get one of these players?

Finally, the last possibility is that teams may have started looking at the numbers on big contracts a little bit closer than they have in the past.  MLB Network's wonderful Brian Kenny chimed in-



A lot of big contracts there that didn't work out.  Is this, based on that performance, just a market correction?  It isn't good for the players, who wanted that same money and number of years that has been there in recent years.  But it might be good for a team that needs a piece or two now that could put them over the top.  If a team needs a starter for one or two years, like my Washington Nationals, why not sign Jake Arrieta to a "show me" contract with a lucrative team option in the 2nd year?  Bringing him in behind Scherzer, Strasburg, and with Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark, makes that the best rotation in the majors.  If you are the Dodgers and see that your outfield might be the weakest part of your team, why not sign JD Martinez to a short, but lucrative, deal?  It would not only bring a big bat to your lineup, but it would take him away from the division-rival Diamondbacks.

So, if it is a market correction, we may see some contracts that offer higher salaries per year, but only go for 3-5 seasons instead of 8-10.  It would force the players to stay on that high level throughout their shorter contract, while still giving them the money that they wanted, just over the shorter amount of time.  Personally, as a fan who doesn't get involved in that politics between the players and owners, I have no problem with that.  If you tell me that I can have Bryce Harper for his age 26-30 seasons on a 5 year deal worth $200 million, I'd be ecstatic.  Fans want their favorite players to stay on their teams.  They want their teams to remain competitive.

At some point, the levee will break, and these players will all get signed.  Some folks believe that Todd Frazier's 2-year, $17 million contract with the Mets may set the market for the mid-level players.  The Twins have an offer out to Yu Darvish that could set the market for the Twins.  The Red Sox have offered JD Martinez a deal over $100 million.  If these deals go through, then the market should move fast as spring training begins.  Until they are signed, however, we will just have to wait by the Cold Stove. 

Philadelphia Eagles: Super Bowl LII Champions

My friend Matt Kirk is a die hard Eagles fan.  I told him that the only chance they would win is if Nick Foles became Jeff Hostetler.  He did a lot better than that.  Foles went 28-43 for 373, 3 TD passes, a fluke pick, and a momentum-changing touchdown catch (what a call) in an epic MVP performance, as the Philadelphia Eagles knocked off the heavily-favored New England Patriots 41-33.  It was an extremely entertaining game, full of great offensive play and, thankfully, lacking controversy.  The refs did a great job, especially on the calls that were reviewed.  They got them all correct (much to Cris Collinsworth's chagrin).  And hey, the Eagles proved a lot of people (myself included) wrong.

Foles' sterling offensive performance was coupled with a balanced rushing attack from Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount.  The defense made the biggest plays when they needed to, forcing a turnover with just over 2 minutes to go in the game.  Brandon Graham was finally able to get to Tom Brady for the first sack of the game, knocking the ball out of his hands and setting the Eagles up to extend their lead to 8 points.  After knocking down the final Hail Mary heave from Brady, the Eagles brought Philadelphia their first Super Bowl championship.

Congrats Philadelphia, the Eagles, and all my friends/family that have been waiting so long for this.  Please don't burn the city down too much.

Now, let's start thinking about the Draft...

JFLANland Super Bowl Pick

Well, it is finally here. The Big Game. Super Bowl LII. And here is my pick-

The Patriots. Of course.

I mean, they have made the AFC boring, and Super Bowls predictable, but that's because they are the best team in the NFL.  I don't think that it will be that close either.  I'll take the Patriots over the Eagles, 31-17.

Where Will Kirk Cousins End Up? Part 2- Denver Broncos

The next team up in the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes is the team that has already made the most vocal overtures to the former Skins QB- The Denver Broncos.  Von Miller, the Broncos' star linebacker and face of the franchise, has gone on record saying Cousins could put them "over the edge".  In truth, the Broncos are not that dissimilar from the team that won the Super Bowl a few years ago with an under-performing Peyton Manning at the helm.  They have been held back by sub-par QB play from Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch.  If John Elway is able to swing a deal, he could have an immediate upgrade in Cousins.

What would Cousins have to work with if he went to Denver?  A fair amount.  Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, CJ Anderson, and Devontae Booker are all under contract for the next two seasons.  That collection is a better group of weapons than he has ever had in DC.  The team also has high picks in this years draft after a down year, so they would be able to add to the arsenal for their new QB.  Couple that with improvements to a defense that, while top 3 in yards allowed per game, fell to 22nd in points allowed, and the Broncos could immediately compete for the AFC title once again. 

There are some issues in getting Kirk to Denver, however, and not just the possibility that he and his family may not want to live at altitude.  The Broncos only have between $24-28 million in cap space, all of which would be eaten up by the massive contract that Cousins' agent thinks he deserves.  They would need to do some creative cutting or restructuring to make sure they can afford Cousins while also have enough money to pay their draft picks and any other free agents.  This could be a tough sell for high paid players like Miller or Thomas, and could cost them a weapon in Anderson, who has no dead cap hit and could save the team $4.5 million if he is cut.  Elway would have to find the proper balance of saving and spending to put a competitive team around his new QB.

I believe that the consensus among writers and talking heads is that John Elway will find a way to sign Kirk Cousins.  The team wants him and is letting everyone know.  Elway knows he can win it all with a half-way decent QB and a solid defense.  Cousins would give them a Top 10 QB that could give the offense the jolt it needs to not only compete in the AFC West, but for another Super Bowl championship.  If they are just a QB away, and Cousins is their man, Elway needs to make it happen.

What do you think of Kirk Cousins and the Denver Broncos?

JFLANland's 2018 Pro Football Hall of Fame Class

Tomorrow, some writers will lock themselves in the room, and when the Papal conclave-esque white smoke is seen billowing from the chimney, there will be new members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.  There are a few slam dunks, some guys that deserve to be in that aren't yet, and then every fan has their candidate from their team.  There can be a maximum of 5 inductees (plus 2 possible senior committee selections), so here are my picks.

1.  Randy Moss, WR.
Slam dunk #1.  He might be the best receiver of his generation, despite some perceived attitude issues (but less than someone else who will be included later).  I think it is a no-brainer.

2.  Ray Lewis, LB
Slam dunk #2.  The best linebacker of his generation, the master of motivation, and a media darling despite having something to do with a murder.  Sure-fire 1st ballot player, to likely be joined next year by teammate Ed Reed.

3.  Terrell Owens, WR
I think his time in HOF purgatory is over.  The voters have made their point.  TO wasn't liked by his teammates or the media.  But he produced at an all-time great level, being the #2 WR all time in yards, #8 in receptions, and #3 in touchdowns.  He is a hall of fame player, and deserves to be in.

4.  John Lynch, S
There is about to be a backlog of safeties if they don't put one in this year, with both Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu coming up soon.  While Brian Dawkins is equally as deserving as John Lynch (possibly more so), I think Lynch gets in because he has been on the ballot a little longer, with this his 5th year as a finalist.  Plus, Lynch is now a mover and shaker in the NFL, as the GM of the 49ers.  Always some fun politics going on in that room.

5.  Joe Jacoby, OT
Damn it all, the Hogs need more than one Hall of Famer, Russ Grimm.  They were the quintessential offensive line of the 1980s and early 1990s.  They were so good, the Redskins were able to win three Super Bowls in that span with three different QBs, none of whom were Hall of Famers.  They were the line that allowed for John Riggins to have a Hall of Fame career.  There needs to be another Hog in the Hall of Fame, and that man is Joe Jacoby.  This is his last year as a member of the modern era ballot, and I would hate to have such a deserving player need to wait for the Senior Committee.  A member of the All-80s team, a 3-time Super Bowl Champion, the anchor of that line.  Yes, Joe Jacoby is a Hall of Famer.


Those are my picks.  Who would you have?

Where Will Kirk Cousins End Up? Part 1- Arizona Cardinals

Greetings again, faithful readers.  Now that Alex Smith is the new QB in DC, the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes has officially begun.  No longer will this Top 10 QB be jerked around by a GM that never bothered to learn his name, or an owner more concerned with protecting a racist name than producing on the field.  Instead, Kirk will have his pick of a bunch of teams that will want him to helm their offense over the next few years.  This new series of posts will be dedicated to looking at the pros and cons of each of those suitors.  We will begin with the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals are in flux right now.  David Johnson got hurt.  Bruce Arians retired.  Carson Palmer retired.  Larry Fitzgerald might retire.  New head coach Steve Wilks comes over from Carolina, where he served as the Panthers defensive coordinator.  That is a lot of balls up in the air for a franchise.  However, the signing of Kirk Cousins would instantly bring this team back to playoff contention, and will likely help Fitzgerald find a fountain of youth for another season or two.

The biggest thing holding the Cardinals back in recent years has been the quarterback play.  When Palmer was on, he was fantastic.  But the past two seasons, he has only been average or hurt, which kept a team that was 13-3 in 2015 to hovering at 8-8 this past season.  In my past mock drafts, I have begged the Cardinals to take an heir apparent to Palmer, knowing his days were numbered.  In fact, I told them to draft a guy in somewhere in the top 3 rounds every year since 2012.  Those QBs? Nick Foles, Mike Glennon, Derek Carr, Brett Hundley, Paxton Lynch, DeShone Kizer. Some hits, some misses, but all could have done well with some time behind Palmer and the teachings of Bruce Arians.  The only QBs that the Cardinals have drafted in that time?  Ryan Lindley in 2012 (who last played in 2015), and Logan Thomas in 2014 (who is now a tight end in Buffalo).  Instead, they stuck with Drew Stanton for far too long, and then picked up Blaine Gabbert this year. Kirk Cousins is a better QB than either of them, and would instantly boost their offense.

Cousins managed to throw for over 4,000 yards this past season after losing Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, not to mention Jordan Reed's injuries and Jamison Crowder's disappointing season and Terrelle Pryor's complete flop.  Imagine what he will be able to do with Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson, not to mention JJ Nelson.  If they were able to add another receiving weapon through the draft, Cousins could be in heaven.  New offensive coordinator Mike McCoy was able to get 4,000 yards a year out of Philip Rivers when he was the head coach of San Diego.  He should be able to get those same numbers out of Cousins, and a bounce-back season from Johnson on the ground would be the perfect compliment to the passing game.

The main concern for the Cardinals, as it likely will be for the rest of the suitors, is the price tag.  Woody Paige of the Denver Post said he heard 6 years, $170 million is the goal from Cousins' agent, which would make him the highest paid player in NFL history.  Roughly $80-90 million of that would be guaranteed money as well.  Signing Kirk Cousins to that contract would eat up most of the remaining salary cap room the team has.  Of course, they could make some moves to free up space, including freeing up almost $3 million if they release Adrian Peterson.  Nevertheless, some teams may be hesitant to give that much money to one player, especially if they think they can find a comparable QB for less.

I think the Cardinals should make a run on Kirk Cousins, because they are a team that is only a few pieces away from competing for a NFC Championship.  A consistent QB leading the offense would go a long way to pushing Arizona from 8-8 to title contenders again.