Tannehill has improved every year he has been in the league. Last year, he had 27 TDs to 12 INTs and guided the Dolphins to another 8-8 season. He also ran for over 300 yards, showing he still has some of that mobility he had at Texas A&M. However, ESPN's Matthew Berry is still ranking him the #11 fantasy QB heading into the year, including behind Tom Brady who may be suspended for 4 games. I think he could be much better than #11. Obviously, Rodgers and Luck will be the top 2. After that, they rank Russell Wilson #3, 8 spots ahead of the Dolphins QB. Why? Tannehill can do everything that Wilson can do, and doesn't have to feed the beast in the backfield as much. True, Wilson gets to throw against easier defenses because Marshawn Lynch demands 8 men in the box most plays, but the Dolphins running game could be solid. Lamar Miller was the #10 running back last year by yards, gaining 1,099 and scoring 8 times. He is also a respectable threat out of the backfield in the passing game, securing 38 catches for 275 yards and a score. Jay Ajayi, rookie RB from Boise State, was an excellent offensive player in college. If those two are able to make an excellent RB tandem, then teams must respect the running game, thus opening things up for Tannehill.
Assuming that Tannehill does get those easier looks thanks to a flourishing running game, the Dolphins have given him some solid weapons in the passing game. Jarvis Landry returns as his #1 target. They brought in Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills, and Jordan Cameron via free agency or trades. They drafted Devante Parker, the standout WR out of Louisville, in the first round of the NFL Draft. A young QB dreams of having all those weapons; both veteran and young guys, deep threats and possession guys. Ryan Tannehill has not had this many skill positions players in his career. He can open up the offense in ways he wasn't able to before, even in a 4000 yard, 27 TD campaign last season.
Finally, look at the Dolphins' schedule. Its not like they are playing the '85 Bears defense every week. Yes, the Jets are solid, and have a good secondary. That is only 2 games out of the year, and the Jets have no depth at the moment behind Revis and Cromartie. The Patriots defense lost Revis and Brandon Browner. The Bills' have Rex Ryan's swagger, but not the same level of personnel as he had once had. Stephon Gilmore, Aaron Williams, and Corey Graham are all better than average to great, but they are also starting a rookie at the 2nd corner spot.
Outside the AFC East, the Dolphins get the NFC East for 4 games. Giants/Skins/Eagles all have unproven to awful secondaries. The Cowboys were torched by Aaron Rodgers and rookie DeVante Adams in the playoffs last year. I wouldn't be surprised if Tannehill went off for 4 touchdowns each of those games. Then there is the AFC South. The Dolphins get the Colts (could be a shootout there), Jags, Texans, and Titans, none of whom are elite defenses, though if JJ Watt and Clowney are both healthy, Houston may not let Tannehill get a pass off all game. Finally, the Dolphins have the Ravens (already without safety Matt Elam for the year) and the Chargers. Again, not the worst in the world, but certainly not on the level of the Seahawks.
If he shows the upward progression he has had the first three seasons, I think Ryan Tannehill could be a Top 5 fantasy QB. He has the weapons around him. He has the talent. He has the schedule that can allow him to go a long way. I think I am a believer in the South Beach signal caller. I am starting to like the Dolphins more and more in that division, as long as Brady stays suspended.
Maybe it is a good thing that I keep ending up with Ryan Tannehill is these mock drafts.
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