Syracuse Football Schedule: Any Chance of a Bowl?

          Happily, it is almost football season.  For me, as an alum of Syracuse University, that means it is a great time to read up on schools that will actually be good.  Let's face it: we stink.  Since I arrived on campus as a freshman in 2004, we were a perennial bowl team that produced such highly-touted prospects as Donovan McNabb and Dwight Freeney.  Once I arrived, as is the case with teams I like, it all went south.  Paul Pasqualoni was fired after a 6-6 season and a bowl loss to Calvin Johnson's Georgia Tech Yellowjackets.  In came new coach Greg Robinson, and the single worst 4 year stretch in the history of the program.  The team went a combined 10-37 under GRob, and he was justifiably fired.  Then, former Syracuse lineman Doug Marrone came home to coach and brought the school back from futility to mediocrity.  We won the Pinstripe Bowl twice, each season winning 8 games.  Then, just as we transitioned to the ACC, Marrone left for the Buffalo Bills, and Scott Shafer was thrust into the spotlight.  We won the Texas Bowl, but followed it up with only 3 wins last season.  So, as the 2015 season approaches, how high should the hopes of Orangemen and Orangewomen everywhere?  Pretty low.

          Yes, Cuse probably won't be that good this year.  It may not even be the fault of the players, to be honest.  Nor the coaches.  It is the fault of the schedule makers.  The first three games of the year are winnable, true.  Hosting Rhode Island, Wake Forest, and Central Michigan could mean this team gets out to a 3-0 record.  If they are impressive in doing it, and have some help with other teams losing, they could even get some Top 25 votes.  But then everything goes to hell, thanks to our insane desire to schedule difficult teams and gain viewers.  In the past, we have had out-of-conference games with Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Northwestern, and even USC.  Who did we pick to start a home and home with this season?  The LSU Tigers.  Yes, a SEC blueblood program is coming to the Dome to destroy us.  I don't know why we insist on scheduling these teams.  The school recently announced that they have a future series with perennial Top 15 team Wisconsin set.  WHY?  Surely, there are other dismal Power 5 conference teams like us that need to play another mediocre big conference schools to help bowl chances.  Syracuse football is no longer prestigious enough to schedule major programs.  Indiana, Iowa State, Wazzu, Kentucky- These are the teams we need to start scheduling.  So, it is safe to assume that the team, at best, will be 3-1 after the Tigers come to town.

          After LSU, the team will travel down to USF.  This is one of our tossup games.  USF isn't that much better than Syracuse.  I could see the Orange winning, but could also see USF defending their home turf well.  Conference play begins with two more tossup games, at UVA and hosting Pitt.  The ACC is a fairly good conference this year, so expecting to win these games may be a bit optimistic.  The next three, as is to be expected, are not winnable by normal Syracuse expectations-  At #10 Florida State, at Louisville, vs #12 Clemson.  These are the best teams in this conference.  Barring a massive upset, these are losses.  So, between them and LSU, the Orange begin their season with 4 losses.  The season ends at NC State and hosting those pesky BC Eagles, both of which should be better than Syracuse, but are not guaranteed losses.

          So, that is 3 expected wins, 4 guaranteed losses, and 5 tossup games.  The Orange have to be able to beat 3 of the tossup teams (USF, UVA, Pitt, NC State, and BC) if they want a bowl birth.  This with a team that has lost numerous pieces on defense, is installing a new offense, and has a starting QB coming off of an injury-plagued year.  Call me a pessimist, but I could see my alma mater lose its last 9 games, or even lose to Wake Forest.  Remember, this team barely beat Villanova last year, and they play in the FCS.  So, as much as I would love to see 6 wins and see my school playing in a bowl game this holiday season, I don't think it is going to happen.

          If it does, feel free to remind me of this post.  I'll be thrilled to be wrong.  Go Orange!

Ryan Tannehill: Miami Hero? Fantasy Hero?

          I am so ready for football, I have been doing mock NFL fantasy drafts for weeks.  I have done so many I am starting to see patterns in the ESPN autopick robot.  Yet I have found that, in many of these mocks, I am ending up with Ryan Tannehill as my starting QB.  Now, you may say that it is because I am not drafting a QB early enough.  This could be true.  I'm one of those guys that is usually more than happy to ride the coattails of a stud QB and strike it lucky on a rookie running back or two to get to the playoffs.  Drew Brees was that guy for me for three straight years.  But looking into it more, I might be ending up with the Miami signal caller because he could be really good.

          Tannehill has improved every year he has been in the league.  Last year, he had 27 TDs to 12 INTs and guided the Dolphins to another 8-8 season.  He also ran for over 300 yards, showing he still has some of that mobility he had at Texas A&M.  However, ESPN's Matthew Berry is still ranking him the #11 fantasy QB heading into the year, including behind Tom Brady who may be suspended for 4 games.  I think he could be much better than #11.  Obviously, Rodgers and Luck will be the top 2.  After that, they rank Russell Wilson #3, 8 spots ahead of the Dolphins QB.  Why?  Tannehill can do everything that Wilson can do, and doesn't have to feed the beast in the backfield as much.  True, Wilson gets to throw against easier defenses because Marshawn Lynch demands 8 men in the box most plays, but the Dolphins running game could be solid.  Lamar Miller was the #10 running back last year by yards, gaining 1,099 and scoring 8 times.  He is also a respectable threat out of the backfield in the passing game, securing 38 catches for 275 yards and a score.  Jay Ajayi, rookie RB from Boise State, was an excellent offensive player in college.  If those two are able to make an excellent RB tandem, then teams must respect the running game, thus opening things up for Tannehill. 

          Assuming that Tannehill does get those easier looks thanks to a flourishing running game, the Dolphins have given him some solid weapons in the passing game.  Jarvis Landry returns as his #1 target.  They brought in Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills, and Jordan Cameron via free agency or trades.  They drafted Devante Parker, the standout WR out of Louisville, in the first round of the NFL Draft.  A young QB dreams of having all those weapons; both veteran and young guys, deep threats and possession guys.  Ryan Tannehill has not had this many skill positions players in his career.  He can open up the offense in ways he wasn't able to before, even in a 4000 yard, 27 TD campaign last season.

          Finally, look at the Dolphins' schedule.  Its not like they are playing the '85 Bears defense every week.  Yes, the Jets are solid, and have a good secondary.  That is only 2 games out of the year, and the Jets have no depth at the moment behind Revis and Cromartie.  The Patriots defense lost Revis and Brandon Browner.  The Bills' have Rex Ryan's swagger, but not the same level of personnel as he had once had.  Stephon Gilmore, Aaron Williams, and Corey Graham are all better than average to great, but they are also starting a rookie at the 2nd corner spot.

          Outside the AFC East, the Dolphins get the NFC East for 4 games.  Giants/Skins/Eagles all have unproven to awful secondaries.  The Cowboys were torched by Aaron Rodgers and rookie DeVante Adams in the playoffs last year.  I wouldn't be surprised if Tannehill went off for 4 touchdowns each of those games.  Then there is the AFC South. The Dolphins get the Colts (could be a shootout there), Jags, Texans, and Titans, none of whom are elite defenses, though if JJ Watt and Clowney are both healthy, Houston may not let Tannehill get a pass off all game.  Finally, the Dolphins have the Ravens (already without safety Matt Elam for the year) and the Chargers.  Again, not the worst in the world, but certainly not on the level of the Seahawks.

          If he shows the upward progression he has had the first three seasons, I think Ryan Tannehill could be a Top 5 fantasy QB.  He has the weapons around him.  He has the talent.  He has the schedule that can allow him to go a long way.  I think I am a believer in the South Beach signal caller.  I am starting to like the Dolphins more and more in that division, as long as Brady stays suspended. 

          Maybe it is a good thing that I keep ending up with Ryan Tannehill is these mock drafts.