What If The Redskins Never Drafted RGIII?

Well, I think the experiment may be just about over.  After a surprising rookie of the year campaign, capped off by a NFC East title and a torn ACL, I believe it is time to put Robert Griffin III out to pasture.  Are there other issues with the Washington Professional Football Team?  Sure.  But this team beat the Tennessee Titans and the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas (who were in 1st) with Colt McCoy, because of McCoy's play, and McCoy isn't even that great.  What he can do, however, is play smart, fast, and unselfish.  Colt McCoy understands that, if the pass rush is getting to him, he needs to throw the ball faster.  He gets that forcing a ball into triple coverage probably isn't the best idea.  He seems to know that the Redskins have very talented position players, so all he has to do is get them the ball and watch them work.  Yet it seems like the franchise QB in Landover, Maryland doesn't get any of that.  His play speaks for itself.  RGIII has regressed because he doesn't have that speed anymore.  He isn't a true rushing threat because his knees are gone, and if he gets hit he will just get hurt once more.  At least when Derrick Rose gets hurt and comes back, he plays well.  Griffin is lost, and has lost his team and the fans.  I don't think he ever had the coach.  Pretty soon, he will lose the owner too.  Then all he will have is his Subway commercials to rock himself to sleep at night.

So, looking back on it, was it worth it to trade three 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick for a guy that gave you one good season?  Hey, I liked RGIII coming out of college.  But I also believe in building through the draft, and not trading up often.  That many picks for one guy?  Quite a hefty haul for a QB with an injury history.  Also, because no one seems to remember this, Heisman trophy winners haven't been that good in the NFL recently.  Cam Newton? Regressing very quickly.  Mark Ingram?  Just now becoming a true feature back.  Bradford? Nope. Tebow? Ha! Bush? Nice complimentary back.  Palmer? Hurt again.  You'd have to go back to Ricky Williams or (a better example) future Hall of Famer Charles Woodson to get a true impact player who won the Heisman.  So, knowing RGIII had an injury history, and knowing that Heisman winners didn't do well, what if the Redskins had decided to stay at the #6 pick and keep all those future selections?  What if the Redskins never drafted Robert Griffin III?  Let's break it down by draft.  Note- I am not going to come in and say that the Skins would have reached for late round picks that turned out to be good.  Russell Wilson wasn't going in the Top 10, so he isn't getting picked there.  I will work off of comparably graded players to the spot or the round in which the pick was made.  So, let's start with the scene of the crime, the 2012 NFL Draft.

The biggest need for the Redskins entering into the 2012 Draft was quarterback.  No question about it.  However, there are 4 QBs graded with 1st round talent.  So, with Luck and RGIII going in the Top 5, the Redskins select Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M.  The inside word was that the Shanahans wanted Tannehill over Griffin anyway, but Mr. Snyder instead decided that star power was more important than draft picks.  Ryan Tannehill has started every game since he was drafted, and has progressed in his play.  He holds almost all the rookie records for passing in Dolphins history, which is saying something considering Marino played there.  He currently has the Miami Dolphins at 6-3, has thrown 17 touchdowns and only 7 picks this year.  He would fill the need at QB.  Then, we move on to the second round, where the Redskins have options.  They needed some secondary help, and Janoris Jenkins is available.  They could take a very talented WR from South Carolina named Alshon Jeffery, though they went on to sign Pierre Garcon, so WR wasn't a huge need.  They also need some offensive line help.  I think they would take a very talented tackle/guard from Stanford, Johnathan Martin.  Now, imagine if Martin had never gone to the Dolphins.  He would have never met Richie Incognito.  He would have gone to a team that, instead, had a bit of veteran leadership in the form of London Fletcher, Trent Williams and Mike Shanahan.  He could be plugged in at their guard or right tackle, and could have easily replaced the oft-injured Jamaal Brown.  The Skins address their biggest two needs with their first two picks, and keep their 1st rounders in 2013 and 2014.

Moving on to the next season, the Redskins may or may not have been just as good with Tannehill over RGIII, so they could have won the division.  Even if they didn't, though, they would have been much improved from that team that was drafting #6 overall.  So, we'll say they would pick in roughly the same spot.  Coming into the 2013 Draft, the biggest need for the Skins was secondary.  They needed corners, safeties, and backups for both.  So, lucky for them, Desmond Trufant is available.  Trufant is a starting corner for the Atlanta Falcons, and set a franchise record for most passes deflected by a rookie in the 2013 season.  This also allows for more flexibility with the Skins' 2nd round pick.  They could draft David Amerson (like they really did) or they could have drafted DJ Swearinger, the safety from South Carolina.  Considering how well the other safeties Washington drafted later turned out (Baccari Rambo is no longer on the team, and Phillip Thomas is always hurt), a combo of Trufant and Swearinger would have been preferable.  You get a solid young corner and a hard-hitting safety, addressing your biggest needs, and (ta da!) have your first round pick for 2014!

With the combo of RGIII and Kirk Cousins at the helm, the Skins had an abysmal 2013 season, and ended up with the #2 pick overall in the draft.  It is entirely possible that could have happened with Tannehill as well.  I, however, am willing to guess they would have picked at least 10th, thus eliminating everyone picked 1-9 instead of just eliminating Clowney from the Skins options.  The big needs for the actual Redskins were O-line, secondary, pass rushing and a replacement for London Fletcher.  For my hypothetical Redskins, Johnathan Martin is still solid on the line, so right tackle or guard can be addressed in later rounds.  Trufant and Swearinger are both NFL starters and are doing well, so secondary becomes a secondary need.  That means that the pass rush or middle linebacker is the top need.  There is CJ Mosley, Aaron Donald, Ryan Shazier, and numerous others.  It is a little too early to tell who the Skins could have gotten around there that would have been the best case scenario, but the point is they would have had fewer needs to fill and more options to take.

The best franchises in football tend to build through the draft.  They either get almost all their impact players from it, kind of like the Ravens and Seahawks, or they pick the right guys to compliment big free agents, like the Broncos.  For many years, the Redskins have just not done that.  So, was trading all of those picks for RGIII the right thing to do?  I think its pretty clear it wasn't.  Yes, hindsight is 20-20.  Yes, its possible that the Skins are so cursed that all of these players would have been garbage anyway.  Yes, it is true that the Skins don't understand what the draft is all about.  But I am not picking guys that are instant Pro Bowlers with these picks.  Its not like I am taking Andrew Luck.  I am just giving them solid players that were available where these picks were slotted.  Instead of one injury prone QB, you end up with a starting QB who hasn't missed a game, a starting RT/RG, a starting CB that means you can take a starting safety with your second round pick, and a first round talent on the defensive front 7, whoever it could have been (I probably would have taken Mosley).  That is a boatload of talent.  That's the core of a perennial contender.  It could be rubbing salt in the RGIII-shaped wound in the heart of DC fans, but with every skipped pass, every interception in triple coverage, and every time that injury cart is driven onto the field, we are reminded what could have been if the Redskins had not traded for the #2 pick, and had not drafted Robert Griffin III.