And They're Off! JFLANland Kentucky Derby Preview

Ah, the first weekend in May is almost upon us.  Considering I will be busy tomorrow seeing Avengers and watching the Nats play the Phillies, today is the day to bring you my official Kentucky Derby preview.  The Run for the Roses will be held at Churchill Downs this Saturday at 6.  So, get your big hat ready, whip up your mint julep, and relearn the words to My Old Kentucky Home, because we're off!

The Favorites:

The morning line favorite is Bodemeister, trained by Hall of Famer (and sunglasses connoisseur) Bob Baffert.  Bodemeister won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby by an astonishing 9 1/2 lengths, leading the entire time.  He is one hell of a horse, and ridden by Kentucky Derby winning jockey Mike Smith.  Smith's most recent triumphs have been on the back of super-horse Zenyatta, but now he will bring the morning line 4-1 favorite into Churchill Downs and post position 6.




Behind Bodemeister are Union Rags, Gemologist and Dullahan.  Union Rags (9-2 Morning Line: Post 4) is coming off a disappointing 3rd place in the Florida Derby and will look to bounce back against the huge field.  Gemologist (6-1: 15) is a perfect 5-5 in his racing career, including a strong win at the G1 Wood Memorial (see below), stalking from just off the pace and holding off Derby contender Alpha at the line.  Dullahan (8-1: 6) took first in the G1 Bluegrass Stakes and is ridden by 3-time Derby champ Kent Desormeaux.




The Mid-Money Contenders:

G1 Santa Anita Derby winner I'll Have Another (12-1: 19) and runner-up Creative Cause (12-1: 8) had a fantastic race in California.  They'll try to triumph away from California's fast track.



Hansen (10-1: 14), winner of the G1 Breeders Cup Juvinille and Bluegrass runner-up, and G1 Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy (15-1: 3) are also solid bets to contend on Saturday.  Take Charge Indy is ridden by 3-time winner Calvin Borel.  Have to like that Mr. Bo-rail is on the inside.


My Sentimental Pick:

Of all the people I have met in my life, no one knew more about horse racing than my father.  He loved the sport, and passed on a bit of that to his kids.  So, my sentimental pick is Daddy Nose Best (15-1: 10).  The name is appropriate, and it'd be nice if he won.  The horse doesn't have the best pedigree or racing history, but I feel like Garret Gomez is due for a Derby win.  Daddy Nose Best is a classic stretch run horse, coming from off the pace and overtaking the leaders.  Here is what Washington Post writer Andrew Beyer said of the horse:

"Of the stretch-running threats in the 138th Derby, the most credible may be Daddy Nose Best. He never attracted much attention as a Derby candidate because he spent the majority of his career running on the turf. But when he finally got the chance to run beyond a mile on dirt, he rallied to win the Sunland Park Derby in New Mexico. Although this was a relatively minor prep race with a relatively weak field, he earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 100, the best last-race number in the field except for Bodemeister. With the right style, a solid foundation of experience and one of the nation’s leading trainers in Steve Asmussen, the 15-to-1 shot is a strong contender."

Good enough for me.


The Field:

1. Daddy Long Legs 30-1
2. Optimizer 50-1
3. Take Charge Indy 15-1
4. Union Rags 9-2
5. Dullahan 8-1
6. Bodemeister 4-1
7. Rousing Sermon 50-1
8. Creative Cause 12-1
9. Trinniberg 50-1
10. Daddy Nose Best 15-1
11. Alpha 15-1
12. Prospective 30-1
13. Went the Day Well 20-1
14. Hansen 10-1
15. Gemologist 6-1
16. El Padrino 20-1
17. Done Talking 50-1
18. SabreCat 30-1
19. I'll Have Another 12-1
20. Liaison 50-1


Enjoy the race!