How to Fix the Nationals? Part 2

Before I even got a chance to write this, the Nationals took the most obvious step towards changing things from last season: They fired Matt Williams this morning.  Look, he is a really nice guy, knows the game (especially hitting) pretty well.  However, he was completely in over his head with this team.  He has no idea how to manage pitching, which at one point was this team's strength.  He lost the clubhouse and the fans.  He had to go.  I am sure he will end up on his feet somewhere soon, though, as a great hitting coach.

The more surprising move is that the Nats fired the entire coaching staff.  Many of those guys, especially beloved bench coach Randy Knorr, have been there since the team either came to DC, or before the franchise became good.  It will be tough losing them all, though I am sure they will all have major league jobs next season if they so desire.  I could still envision Randy Knorr getting an interview for the head job with the Nats if he chooses.

So, now that Matt Williams is gone, who takes over a team with so much talent and so little to show for it?  Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post wrote a great piece looking at various options, the most intriguing to me being Bud Black, Dave Martinez, and Ron Wotus.  All three have some sort of managerial experience, even as a bench coach.  Bud Black clearly has the most time as a leader, even though his time in San Diego wasn't spectacular, it was solid for a team that didn't want to spend much money.  Plus, he understands pitching much better than Williams.  Both Martinez and more-so Wotus come from under the tutelage of winning managers, and may just need the chance to shine on their own.

There are other names out there for sure.  MASN's Byron Kerr brings up two interesting options, both with a JR after their name- Nats AAA manager Billy Gardner, Jr and Orioles Hall of Famer Cal Ripken, Jr.  Call was a popular name when Matt Williams was hired, and would be viewed as something of a shot across the bow of that team in Baltimore.  However, he has zero managerial experience, and coming off of Williams' failures, I doubt that would be an option.  Gardner has managed in the minors for 21 years, was the 2014 International League Manager of the Year, but his Syracuse Chiefs struggled to a 66-78 record this year.  It may not be his time just yet.

The final name I would like to toss out, just because we know he can win and has the Hall of Fame clout to get guys to listen to him, is Tony La Russa.  I know, he is retired and has a front office position with the Diamondbacks.  However, the allure of being able to manage Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer for an extended period of time has to be appealing on some level to anyone that loves the game of baseball as much as La Russa does.  He is the type of manager that could come in, even at 71 (just turned 71 on 10/4. Happy Birthday!), get guys to buy in, and win a championship.  Just an idea.


So there you have it.  The Nats search for a manager has officially begun.  The free agents will all be gone soon, and the appropriate moves have to be made.  For a team that had such high hopes, this season was a massive failure and extreme disappointment.  It is possible to fix the Nationals.  But will that fix be an easy one?

How to Fix the Nationals? Part 1

It goes without saying that my beloved Washington Nationals crapped the bed this season.  Aside from Bryce Harper's MVP campaign, there is very little to be happy about.  Sure, Stephen Strasburg has been excellent since coming back from his injury.  However, his injury history itself is a problem, much like Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and now Anthony Rendon.  Of course, the massive issue of an inept manager could be the biggest issue, but I will be saving that for Part 2 of this piece.  Instead, Part 1 will look at the projected 25-man roster for next year as I see it, and how I would tweak it to make the team better.  I think that GM Mike Rizzo, pictured above, should listen to these.  This also assumes the loss of all free agents the team has, so Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Denard Span, Doug Fister, and some bullpen arms/bench players.  We'll start with the position players:

Starters in italics:

1B: Ryan Zimmerman, Clint Robinson
2B: Danny Espinosa, Trea Turner
3B: Anthony Rendon
SS: Yunel Escobar
C: Wilson Ramos, Jose Lobaton
LF: Jayson Werth, Tyler Moore
CF: Michael A Taylor, Matt den Dekker
RF: Bryce Harper

Aside from losing Denard Span to free agency, which I am still not sure is going to happen considering how much better the team played with Span in the lineup, this is how I see the starters and the bench.  Michael A. Taylor starts in CF to replace Span.  Yunel Escobar moves over to his natural position of SS because Desmond is gone.  This also moves Anthony Rendon back to 3B, which is his best position.  The question will be who starts at 2B.  Danny Espinosa certainly earned a chance to start with his fill-in duty this year, and isn't a free agent until 2018.  However, GM Mike Rizzo may choose to keep the super utility man on the bench and start either Trea Turner at 2B (where he has been playing since he was called up), or a more natural 2B like Wilmer Difo.  Both Espinosa and Turner are Clint Robinson has had a stellar rookie campaign, is a great left-handed bat off the bench, and can play 1B, 3B, or the corner outfield positions.  Matt Den Dekker can play all three outfield positions, has shown power himself, and is another lefty option.  Switch-hitting Lobaton will once again be the backup, but may earn himself more playing time if Wilson Ramos has another down year.

There is some talk of adding another bat to the lineup.  I don't think that is necessary.  Given that the team has all of those bench players under contract for significant amounts of time, relying on them and a potent-when-healthy lineup should be the way to go, especially if the Lerner family doesn't want to spend much money.  The pitchers, on the other hand, could be a different story.

Starting Rotation

1. Max Scherzer. RHP
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP
3. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
4. Joe Ross, RHP
5. _____________

That 5th spot will be a pretty big hole to fill if the Nationals do not re-sign Jordan Zimmermann.  Jordan is, quite simply, the best pitcher in the history of the Washington Nationals franchise (2005-present).  He was also the most consistent pitcher.  Replacing what he brought will be extremely difficult.  However, there may only be enough money to keep him or Strasburg along with Max, and Strasburg, when he is healthy and focused, has the better stuff.  So, what does the team do if it loses Zimmermann?  Top prospect LHP Lucas Giolito may be ready, though he is only 21 and has never pitched above AA.  The team could use a placeholding starter like Taylor Jordan, or move Tanner Roark back to the rotation full time until Giolito has some more experience.  There may be a cheap veteran on the market as well, a la Dan Haren a few years ago.  Even with that big hole at the #5 spot, however, the rotation isn't the biggest issue.  That is clearly the bullpen.

Bullpen

1. Jonathan Papelbon, RHP
2. Drew Storen, RHP
3. Casey Janssen, RHP
4. Blake Trienan, RHP
5. Craig Stammen, RHP
6. Tanner Roark, RHP
7. Felipe Rivero, LHP

Yeah, there are a few issues there.  First, only having one lefty reliever is foolish, even if Felipe has shown that he is probably the best arm out of the bullpen.  Losing Matt Thornton to free agency will be a big blow, and is one I personally feel should be avoided.  Here is how you make room to keep him, and add some more dependable arms:

1- Buy out Casey Janssen.
          Janssen has a $1.5 million buyout on his projected $7 million mutual option this offseason.  He cannot come back to the team for that much money.  Instead, he should be bought out, and the money saved should be used to re-sign Thornton.  If Thornton is not the option, then bring up lefty Matt Grace full time in the 'pen.

2- Keep Blake Trienan in AAA
          Trienan has a power arm.  He can get up to 99 on the gun.  The problem is, he only throws straight fastballs, and has no go-to get-out pitch, like a great changeup or breaking ball.  Opposing teams have figured him out.  He has to stay in AAA Syracuse until he develops that second or third pitch.

3- Trade/dump Papelbon and Storen
          Jonathan Papelbon is a cancer.  He has proven to be that by headhunting against Manny Machado, and starting a fight with the MVP Bryce Harper.  He was brought to DC in a move that proved to be a massive mistake.  After he arrived, the entire bullpen went to hell and the Nats collapsed.  I don't care that he is due $11 million guaranteed next year, or that he has a partial no trade clause.  If I am Mike Rizzo, I would promise to pay at least 3/4th of his contract, or just pay it in full and release him.  Drew Storen, whose amazing fall from grace the second Papelbon arrived is worthy of a Greek tragedy, would be better served elsewhere as well.  Since Storen has shown that, when he has the faith of the organization behind him he can be a reliable closer, he could be a valuable trade piece, perhaps as part of a deal to get a new starter.  However, Rizzo holds a grudge, so I imagine we would have seen the last of Drew Storen in a Nats uniform.

4- Sign Darren O'Day
          O'Day is an unrestricted free agent this offseason, after spending some great years in Baltimore.  He is coming off the best season of his career, and was a 2015 All Star.  O'Day has shown to be reliable and durable, can be an excellent set up man, or could even close.  He would be a fantastic addition to the bullpen.  I, for one, was arguing that the team should have traded for him during the year instead of Papelbon.  Who knows what would have happened then?

The bullpen, after these moves, would look like this:

1. Matt Thornton, LHP
2. Felipe Rivero, LHP
3. Craig Stammen, RHP
4. Darren O'Day, RHP
5. Tanner Roark, RHP
6. ________
7. ________

The final two spots could be won in Spring Training, or filled by another free agent signing.  AJ Cole, Sammy Solis, Erik Davis, or Rafael Martin would all be solid options.  I, personally, believe that Rivero has the stuff to be an extremely effective closer, with O'Day as his set up man.  I think that this is still an improvement over the current bullpen situation.



So there you have it, a rough look at next season's 25 man roster, with some major changes to the bullpen.  Will all of this matter, of course, if Matt Williams returns as manager?  Stay tuned for Part 2 to find out.