JFLANland's 2015 NFL Season Picks!

Football starts tonight, my friends.  I am extremely excited, not only because of football's own glory, but because I means I don't have to worry about that damned disappointment of a baseball team I root for.  I could do an entire season preview, and still may before Sunday, but instead I will just give you my playoff picks for this season.  These are the teams I think will win their divisions, as well as the two wild card teams for each conference.  We'll start in the NFC:

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
Wild Cards: Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals

I think that the easiest picks for the playoffs this year in the NFC are the Packers and Cowboys.  While I am sure that the Eagles and Giants can give Dallas a run for their money, I still think the Cowboys are a bit too talented to miss out on the division.  Also, I do not think that Sam Bradford will last the season, so the Eagles will fall off towards the end of the season.  The Packers are clearly the class of the North, even without Jordy Nelson, and even with the Vikings getting better.

The NFC South should once again be a ridiculous mess.  The Saints have improved their offensive line, but lost their best weapon in Jimmy Graham.  The Panthers have already lost Kelvin Benjamin.  The Bucs are still extremely young.  Give me the Falcons.  They have the most experience, possibly the most talent, and new coaches to give the franchise some energy.

The Seahawks and the Cardinals will have the closest race in the NFC.  As long as Carson Palmer stays healthy, the Cardinals have a chance to win the division.  However, given his track record, there is nothing to suggest that Palmer will, so the Seahawks will take the division again.  I'll take those improving Vikings to hold off the Giants, Panthers, and Eagles for the 2nd Wild Card.


AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC West: Denver Broncos
Wild Cards: Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs

The Colts are a complete given to win the South.  If they don't, they will be the biggest disappointment in the NFL.  I think that the Patriots will come back angry as hell, and do their best to run rampant over their schedule.  Denver, too, should be the favorite in the West, even if Peyton is another year older.  They still have the best weapons of any team in that division, and a solid defense.

The AFC North is always the toughest division to predict.  The Bengals are always in the discussion under Marvin Lewis, but merely flop once they get to the playoffs.  The Ravens have been the model of consistency since drafting Joe Flacco, almost always getting to the playoffs and getting that one Super Bowl win.  However, I think that the boys in Baltimore lost a bit too much firepower on offense to keep up with the Steelers, who have a great QB, excellent running back, and one of the best wideout corps in football.

The Wild Cards in the AFC are much more difficult to pick than the NFC.  Baltimore, Houston, Miami, KC, San Diego, and Cincinnati are all realistic options.  Some think that the Jets or Bills could also make a push with their new coaches and strong defenses, though their QB questions will keep them out in my eyes.  Give me Miami and KC.  Ryan Tannehill has gotten better every year, they have excellent young position players, and the team added Ndamukong Suh to their defense.  Kansas City is just a team that screams Wild Card to me. Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin, and a solid defense should put them above the rest of the contenders.



I won't go so far as to predict my conference champions yet, though I do like the Packers,Cowboys, Steelers and Colts to get to the championship games.  Hopefully your team, whoever it may be, will do well this season.  Or, if you are like me, hopefully your team is bad enough where they have an excellent draft pick.  Enjoy the season, readers!

The 2015 New York Mets aka 2012 Washington Nationals

     

      It is all but officially over for my Washington Nationals after last night's complete collapse against the NL East-leading New York Mets.  I won't get into that.  It is far too depressing for me at the moment.  But, upon watching these Mets (so, basically, the past month and a half), I see a very familiar team.  In fact, I see the 2012 Washington Nationals.  It goes beyond the fact that the Mets were not picked by many (or any) to win the division, like the Nats were back in 2012.  There are some strikingly similar lineup and rotation similarities.

      First, we can start with the pitching.  The 2012 Washington Nationals were anchored by three great young star pitchers in Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Stephen Strasburg, along with steady work from Edwin Jackson and Ross Detweiler.  They finished with a team ERA of 3.33.  Strasburg, who had shown flashes of brilliance before, was recovering from Tommy Johns surgery, had an innings limit, and there was a great controversy about whether or not he should be shut down.  In the end he was, and the national media credits that with the team's loss in the playoffs (not the bullpen collapse, which is a common issue in DC it seems).

      These Mets are anchored by three great young star pitchers in Jacob DeGrom, Noah Syndegaard, and Matt Harvey, along with steady work from Johnathan Neise and age-defying stuff from Bartolo Colon.  They currently have a team ERA of 3.37.  Harvey, like Strasburg, has shown he can be dominant, but is recovering from Tommy Johns, is approaching an innings limit, and there are massive rumblings out of Queens that if Harvey doesn't give it his all, the fans will turn and want him traded immediately.  The plan right now is for Harvey to essentially be shut down, but come back and pitch a little in the playoffs, though no more than 50 or so pitches and probably only one appearance per series.  If you thought the media was hard on the Nationals for Strasburg, imagine what just New York writers will do to the Mets.

      Next, we have some of the similarities in the lineup.  True, these seemed to manifest themselves a lot more after the Mets made some great moves at the deadline, thus rejuvenating their lineup and remembering how to hit.  Since then, they have managed to pair younger or new guys on amazing hot streaks like Wilmer Flores and Yoanis Cespedes with veterans or journeymen who get to see more pitches to hit.  Some of these guys would be Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphey, and even Juan Uribe before David Wright came back.  This has turned a struggling offense into one of the most potent in baseball, consistently scoring 14 runs a game as if it was normal.

      The 2012 had a similar pairing of young stars with effective journeymen.  The arrival of Bryce Harper to the major leagues put everyone on notice of his ability, as he hit 22 home runs that Rookie of the Year season.  Silimarly, Ian Desmond put together his first of three Silver Slugger campaigns.  If you add those to the 35 and 36 HR efforts of Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche, plus the emergence of former bench player Michael Morse to dominance and Jayson Werth's consistent (when healthy) play, you find a lineup with great scoring ability.  The 2012 Nationals averaged 4.51 runs per game, 0.3 runs ahead of these Mets' 4.21.

      But the similarities do not end there!  Both teams also suffered injuries to their young starting catchers, as well as to their team's veteran leader.  Travis d'Arnaud broke his wrist this April and has only appeared in 48 games.  Wilson Ramos tore his ACL in 2012 after only 25 games, and missed the rest of the season.  David Wright had issues with his back, and has only recently returned to the lineup, having played just 20 games.  Jayson Werth broke his wrist on a Sunday night game vs the Phillies, and ended up with only 81 games played.  See?  Doesn't sound so crazy after all.

      Finally, there is the division competition.  Well, this might be where the team differ, actually.  The 2012 Nationals won 98 games, the most in baseball, winning the NL East by 4 over the favored Braves.  There is almost no chance the Mets are going to win that many games.  Furthermore, the Mets wouldn't even have enough wins to be the Wild Card if they were trailing in the division.  However, the Mets are winning (or being handed) enough games to hold off the 2015 Nationals, their only real competition in the worst division in baseball.

The interesting matchups for the Mets begin in the playoffs.  Can their inexperienced crew overcome their first round opponent?  Are they doomed to heartbreak like the 2012 Nationals?  If the similarities are truly there, I wouldn't doubt it.